Putin’s Sovereignty Agenda Masks Structural Limits to Growth

When Prime Minister Inga Ruginene visited the capital of Azerbaijan, the focus was not on signed agreements — there were none — but on a deeper process: a reassessment of the role of small states in a shifting geopolitical architecture where energy, logistics, and security are increasingly intertwined.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow last week has triggered a new round of tensions in Armenian-Russian relations. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to persuade Pashinyan to abandon rapprochement with the European Union and the United States failed, despite arguments presented by the Russian side. Pashinyan, according to his public statements, reaffirmed Armenia’s commitment to an independent foreign policy.

Russia has sharply escalated its criticism of the proposed “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), with senior officials signalling that Moscow views the initiative as both illegitimate and strategically destabilising for the South Caucasus.

Kazakhstan is gradually increasing its oil exports through Azerbaijan, strengthening the country’s role as a key transit energy hub in the Caspian region and reflecting broader changes in Eurasian energy logistics.