The weakening of repression: visibility, reality, the tactical course of power?

Arrest statistics

Tofig Mammadov, an activist of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, was arrested on February 22 for 15 days. Another member of the party, Ayat Ismayilov, was beaten by police officers at a metro station in Baku. On the eve and after the January 19 rally, more than 61 PFPA activists were detained; 41 were subjected to administrative arrests, 21 more were sentenced to pay fines from 200 to 500 manat.

On February 21, site editor Mustafa Hajibeyli was sentenced to five and a half years in prison, but with a two-year suspended sentence, for the fact that his article about mass unrest in Ganja frightened two women entangled in court in their testimony. A year or two ago they would have sentenced him for a real time in a false accusation of drug possession.

On February 19, people in civilian clothes detained a member of the governing board of the Organization of Nationalist Youth, Zakir Karimli. By decision of the Yasamal district, he was arrested for 15 days.

Another characteristic example to illustrate the new method of putting pressure on the youth activists of the democratic opposition: activist Fatima Movlanly held her second single picket in the center of Baku last week. She stood on the street, holding a poster with an inscription about the requirement to allow a mass rally. The police did not touch Fatima, did not detain her, although in her revolutionary biography there were detentions and physical violence in the police. They only came to her home on February 26 and took her to the fourth police station of the Binagadi district.

Rafael Huseynzadeh, an activist arrested for 30 days, is held in the Binagadi prison. He is convicted of disobeying police, and was detained during his solitary picket on January 25, demanding the release of political prisoners. This is his second personal picket. Raphael's father held his solitary picket demanding the release of political prisoners, for which he was sentenced to administrative punishment.

On February 13, the Court of Appeal reduced the term for the opposition member to Mamed Ibrahim by a month and six days. The politician served three years in the jail and was supposed to be released on September 29, 2018, was convicted in the case of keeping a knife.

On February 18, the Baku Court of Appeal reduced the term of activist Telman Shiraliyev from 5 months and 18 days to 4 months and 13 days.

Observing the reaction of the authorities to the manifestations of political discontent, it is noticeable that in the past the persecution of activists was more severe. In April 2017, the blogger Mehman Galandarov died in prison. He twice went on a single picket with a poster. For the first time, the police warned him, beat him, but Mehman came out with a poster on the street a second time. They put him in jail again, and from there, Mehman never came back alive.

Members of the NIDA Movement Giyas Ibrahimli and Bayram Mammadov were arrested on May 11, 2016 after they wrote political slogans on the pedestal of the monument to Heydar Aliyev. However, they were accused of a crime related to drug trafficking, and sentenced to 10 years in prison after severe torture by the police, which they told the judges. Their statements were left without a judicial reaction.

The change of tactics

It seems that the Azerbaijani authorities changed the tactics of persecution of the political opposition. The authorities began to realize the severity of the consequences of about 150 political prisoners in prisons. Awareness came after a controversy in the world with the power of the convicted blogger Mehman Huseynov. On December 26, 2018, he began a hunger strike in prison in response to a new falsified charge with the intention of keeping him in custody after the end of his first term (completed in early March 2019). Mehman's action blew up the long-term patience of society. Fighters for the freedom and independence of Azerbaijan in prisons, in freedom and outside the country spoke out against the suppression of the rights and freedoms of citizens. The largest rally of the political opposition in recent years has been held in Baku on January 19.

The voices of the Azerbaijani democrats were heard outside the country. "The resolution adopted on January 17, 2019 by the European Parliament, the Case of Mehman Huseynov in Azerbaijan, is a clear indication of the growing opposition of the European democratic community to the dictatorship established in Azerbaijan," says the statement of the Union "Freedom to political prisoners of Azerbaijan." The conclusion between the EU and Azerbaijan of the Agreement is questionable, the statement said.

Human rights activists are not thrilled

The head of the Civil Rights Institute, Bashir Suleimanly, sees a new trend in government policies. "I am far from thinking that power is being democratized; but the power at least, is forced to reckon with public opinion. Probably, the early release of Ibrahim and Shiraliyev in March will be followed by a new pardon, which will affect a dozen or half-political prisoners. True, at the same time, the authorities are carrying out administrative arrests of oppositionists, making it clear that they will not allow any indulgences. Over the past month, about 35 people have been subjected to administrative arrests. But still these are short-term conclusions, and their intimidating effect is much lower," said Suleimanly to the "Caucasian Knot". The authorities will not go for changes on strategic issues - the reform of the judiciary, the holding of democratic elections - if there is no "active civil movement for securing freedoms," he said.

Human rights activist Leyla Aliyeva, who lives in political emigration (Oxford, England), notices the weakening of repressive sanctions, but she does not consider that the process is irreversible. "The reaction of the authorities depends on the consequences of the new domestic policy towards the democratic opposition. I do not exclude that the government only resorted to a tactical move," Leila Aliyeva answered the question from Turan. The human rights activist states the growth in the number of administrative convictions as preventive measures by the authorities in connection with possible unauthorized meetings. Repressive authorities in this way warn young radicals about punishment for rallies, she wrote in a letter to the author.

Leyla Aliyeva does not believe that the weakening of the repressions was caused by the Pashinyan revolution in Armenia. "The only effect that events in Armenia can cause in Azerbaijan is I.Aliyev"s actions on Nagorno-Karabakh, because he is not interested in the opinion about him in the world. I. Aliyev wants to show the West that Azerbaijan is a special case, if he leaves power, Islamists will take his place, turning Azerbaijan into a likeness of Iran. The West agrees with this assessment and therefore forgives him a lot," the political scientist noted.

Unjustified sentence

It should be noted that Mustafa Hajibeyli does not consider the sentence against him mild, and does not see signs of weakening repression. "I do not know where you see the relief of punishments. I was convicted without reason; the sentence was imposed in order to hang the sword of Damocles, which made me silent. The prosecutor's office interrogated me for 11-12 hours, my site was blocked, and the conditional sentence was handed down for being a disabled Karabakh war and in my care for children. Made a ban on leaving the country. Do you call this a light sentence? I will continue the struggle for the complete abolition of the illegal sentence," said M. Hajibeyli.