Political unrest in Iran can become a reality

When American aircraft carriers begin converging toward the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz, it is rarely just a signal. It is a language of power — understood simultaneously by allies, adversaries, and markets. Today, that language is звучит especially loudly.

Wars often begin with loud promises and end with quiet compromises. The conflict surrounding Iran, which until recently seemed like a prelude to a wider confrontation, increasingly resembles precisely such a war — one whose objectives are limited not by the weakness of the parties, but by their calculations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to the Persian Gulf states in late March concluded with the signing of a series of key agreements on cooperation in air defense with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, underscoring Kyiv’s growing role as a provider of security solutions.

A sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions at the end of February triggered one of the fastest oil price rallies in recent years. Over the following five weeks — from February 28 to April 5 — benchmark crude prices rose from around $70 per barrel to $110–120, according to Reuters.