Battle for Hormuz: Why the United States resumed strikes on Iran

The United States struck Iranian territory for the first time in more than a month, targeting two launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded with missile attacks on U.S. military facilities in Jordan, increasing the risk of a return to large-scale hostilities.

U.S. Central Command said forces from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were preparing to launch rockets carrying naval mines into the strait. A CENTCOM representative described the operation as a “limited, precise action” against an “imminent threat.”

The strike came several days after the United States completed an operation to clear international shipping routes of mines. The Strait of Hormuz, which handled about one-fifth of global oil trade before the war, remains Tehran’s main source of leverage over Washington and its allies.

The IRGC said military personnel and civilians had been killed or wounded, calling the attack a “strategic and fatal error.” The reported casualties have not been independently verified.

Iran said it responded by firing ballistic missiles at the King Hussein and Al-Azraq bases in Jordan, striking technical and maintenance infrastructure as well as areas where U.S. aircraft were stationed. The Jordanian military said its air defences intercepted eight missiles that had entered the kingdom’s airspace. There were no reports of significant damage or casualties.

Washington’s limited choice of targets suggests it was seeking to eliminate a specific threat to shipping without launching a new, broad air campaign. At the same time, the strike was intended to show that the pause in U.S. operations did not amount to a renunciation of military force.

For Tehran, attacking bases outside U.S. territory was a way to demonstrate its ability to strike Washington’s military infrastructure across the region. Targeting Jordan also increases pressure on U.S. allies that host American forces.

The renewed exchange of strikes reduces the chances of a rapid return to negotiations, according to oil-market participants. “We were hoping that U.S.-Iran negotiations could resume by the end of the third quarter, but that now looks less likely,” Reuters quoted an analyst as saying.

Oil prices reacted immediately, with Brent crude rising by more than 2% to above $90 a barrel. The number of visible commercial vessels passing through the strait fell to about five a day.

The main risk is that a limited operation could trigger a new cycle of retaliatory strikes. The deaths of U.S. service members could force Washington to expand its list of targets, while an attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure could prompt Tehran to mine the strait again. In that event, the battle over freedom of navigation would develop into another phase of the regional war.