Evaluation of "Strategy of Socio-Economic Development in 2022‒2026"

As the world economy braces for another year of tepid expansion, Azerbaijan finds itself navigating a complex landscape of opportunities and risks. The World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook 2025, released in January, forecasts 2.7% global growth in 2025 and 2026, a level that mirrors 2024 but lags behind pre-pandemic rates. The report paints a picture of moderate yet fragile growth, with developing economies, inflation trends, and geopolitical instability shaping the broader economic outlook.

For many years, we have been stating that the average monthly salary in the country does not reflect the real income level of the population. This is because the average monthly salary is inflated due to the high wages in the oil and gas sector and the public sector. For example, in January-November 2024, the average monthly nominal salary of employees in the national economy increased by 8.0% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching 996.8 AZN. Salaries in the oil and gas sector stood at 3,717 AZN, while in the non-oil and gas sector, it was 947 AZN.

The paradoxical development trajectory of resource-rich states is described with various epithets. A wide array of terms is used in this context: "resource curse," "devil's excrement," "distorted development," "African fever," "Dutch disease," "paradox of plenty," and so on. Qatar, which leads the world in GDP per capita, also uses another intriguing phrase: “children of oil.”

In 2024, one of the most notable developments in the Azerbaijani economy that demands detailed analysis is the transformation of foreign trade statistics. This article provides an in-depth examination of Azerbaijan's foreign trade landscape in 2024, focusing on its dynamics, structure, and geographic composition. It evaluates emerging trends, highlights current and future challenges, and considers devaluation expectations alongside their short- and medium-term implications. For a comprehensive perspective, the analysis also includes a retrospective review of the past three years, emphasizing the post-COVID recovery period.