Armenian-Azerbaijani Aggravation: The Problem of Two Ds

A noticeable aggravation of the border situation followed after the statement of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan on the issue of two DDs. In fact, he openly disavowed the previously reached agreements on the beginning of the DD, which were called for last spring by all the countries of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, represented by the United States, Russia and France.

In an interview with the Public Television of Armenia on November 8, Pashinyan expressed concern that in this way Azerbaijan is trying de jure to include the territory of the Nagorno-Karabakh in its composition, since if the borders of Azerbaijan are recognized, then Karabakh will automatically become part of Azerbaijan. He referred to public pressure on this issue: "I said at a government meeting back in May that I was ready to sign the document on demarcation and delimitation proposed by the Russian Federation, and you remember the domestic political uproar."

On May 18, during a telephone conversation with US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, President Ilham Aliyev agreed with the US position on accelerating the DD process.

“President Ilham Aliyev agreed with the US President’s National Security Adviser on the need to start negotiations on the delimitation of the international border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and stressed the importance of conducting this process in accordance with the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020,” Aliyev’s press service noted.

At a meeting of the Council of CIS Heads of Government in Minsk on May 29, Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov reiterated his support for Russia's initiative to create a trilateral commission on demarcation and delimitation of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border.

France supports the possibility of starting the process of delimitation and demarcation of the borders of Azerbaijan and Armenia and notes the importance of creating an atmosphere of peace for resolving this issue, French Ambassador to Armenia Anne Luyo said in an interview with the state agency Armenpress on November 2.

On September 9, at a briefing in Moscow, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova said: “We are closely monitoring the situation on certain sections of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan."

She also stressed that the Russian Federation has conveyed its proposals on delimitation and demarcation to Azerbaijan and Armenia: "We expect a quick response to form a further course."

Armenia and Azerbaijan adopted the Russian plan for the DD process, and this was reported at a high level. The position of the political elite of Armenia was categorically against the DD, as it saw in the recognition of the borders with Azerbaijan and the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh part of it. The position of Pashinan and his supporters on this issue slipped from the recognition and non-recognition of borders in the modern historical period.

The basis of Russia's DD initiative, which was presented to the parties, is not disclosed. However, officials said that the DD process will take place on the basis of the carats of the General Staff of the Russian Federation.

At a meeting of the Valdai Club on October 21, Putin put it this way: “We probably don't need anyone here, except for the two sides and Russia. There are very simple and pragmatic things: yes, there are maps because there are in the General Staff of the Russian army, which show how the borders of the union republics passed during the Soviet period. There are things there that also require mutual compromises: somewhere to align something, somewhere to exchange something. Only in such a way that it was recognized, it was clear that it was beneficial to both parties."

Azerbaijan agrees with this, since there were no comments expressing any danger in this regard.

Armenia has own point of view on the basic cards for negotiations and operate with cards from the 1920s. And in this approach, Armenia has no allies, which complicates its position.

The situation on the border is becoming dramatic, and the situation can only be defused by following the path of all post-Soviet countries that outlined their borders along the status quo at the time of the denunciation of the USSR.