Could the Assassination of a Hamas Leader Lead to a Major War in the Middle East?

For several days, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran's capital, Tehran, has been one of the most discussed topics worldwide.

The New York Times, citing its sources, reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, ordered a direct strike on Israel.

Iran's representative to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravani, stated at an emergency meeting of the Security Council that the United States is responsible for Haniyeh's assassination. According to him, this horrific assassination could not have been carried out without Washington's permission and the support of American intelligence.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken preemptively denied the allegations. Blinken even requested Iran, through Qatar, not to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Ankara also reacted harshly to Haniyeh's assassination. In a phone conversation with the Pope, President Erdogan stated that Israel's assassination of Haniyeh and the attack on Lebanon pose a threat to the entire region, peace, and humanity.

Political commentator Ilham Ismail comments on these events in the program "Complex Issue." The expert was skeptical about Tehran's threats to strike Israel. He stated that the world has witnessed loud statements (since the time of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) from Iran that "Israel will be wiped off the face of the earth," with slogans like "Death to Israel."

"When the commander of the Quds Force, the special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for conducting special operations outside Iran, Lieutenant General Qasem Soleimani, who was a much more significant figure for Iran than Ismail Haniyeh, was killed, Iran's leadership also threatened to deal a painful blow to the United States. However, they called the Americans and informed them, 'We are going to launch 300 missiles at your base in Iraq and want to warn you about it,' " said Ilham Ismail.

He reminded that recently, before launching a missile barrage at Israel, Iran similarly warned the U.S. in advance about the impending missile strike. "The same is happening now. Khamenei knows perfectly well that if a serious strike is made, Iran will receive a crushing response. Therefore, it is unlikely to lead to war," Ismail said.

He also reported that last night, Iranian proxies (Hezbollah) launched 60 rockets at Israel. According to preliminary information from CNN Turk, 15 of them were intercepted, and 45 reached their targets. "This is the maximum Tehran can do. Tensions will certainly increase, but there will be no major war," the expert believes.