Is the United States interfering in the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia again?

The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to facilitating a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken declaring that the two nations are "very close to reaching a final agreement." This statement was made during a trilateral meeting with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in Washington.

Blinken emphasized the significance of a durable and dignified peace deal, highlighting the potential benefits for both countries, the broader region, and their relations with the United States. "Throughout this process, the United States has provided assistance and support, along with the European Union and many colleagues in Europe. Today's meeting is an opportunity to take stock of the progress achieved," Blinken said. He expressed optimism that the two nations were nearing a final agreement, which the U.S. would strongly support. "Therefore, I am grateful for today's opportunity to reassess where we are and see what the United States can do to reach an agreement," he added.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, political commentator Elkhan Shahinoglu, in the program "A Difficult Question," argues that the U.S. is not merely an observer but an active participant in the peace process. U.S. diplomats and officials have been heavily involved in the region, with multiple meetings between Bayramov and Mirzoyan held in the United States, including the most recent on July 9 during the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington.

Shahinoglu suggests that the success of the U.S. efforts hinges on significant amendments to the Armenian constitution, particularly regarding territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Without these changes, he believes, a peace agreement remains unlikely. However, he does not dismiss the possibility of a framework agreement being signed this year, potentially before or after November. "This is exactly what the United States is trying to achieve," he noted.

The political scientist attributes the heightened U.S. involvement to two main factors. Firstly, the U.S. aims to counterbalance Russian influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, particularly if Russia's aggression against Ukraine succeeds. By capitalizing on Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine, the U.S. hopes to expedite a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Secondly, the United States opposes the Azerbaijan-Iran agreement to construct a railway connecting Azerbaijan's main territory with Nakhchivan via Iran, which could become part of the Middle Corridor. Instead, the U.S. supports the Zangezur corridor and has expressed its backing for this project for the first time. "But in order to implement these plans, Washington will have to put pressure on Yerevan," Shahinoglu believes.

He also emphasized that while the U.S. seeks to act as a mediator in the negotiations, Azerbaijan may not require intermediaries. "I believe that the participation of the United States as a moderator, providing them with a platform for negotiations may be productive. But not participation in the peace process, not as a mediator," Shahinoglu stated.

As the negotiations continue, the role of the United States remains critical, with its actions potentially shaping the future of peace and stability in the South Caucasus.