Lack of support in cities will create problems for Erdogan - expert

Baku/18.04.17/Turan: The idea of ​​changing the form of state governance in Turkey is not new. Discussions about this were carried out from the very beginning of the establishment of the Turkish Republic, the head of the Center for International and Strategic Studies "Caucasus" Araz Aslanly said in an interview with the program Cətin sual (Difficult issue) of Turan agency. These discussions revived in the late 80's, after Turkey once again returned to democratic rule after a military coup.

The institute of the president in Turkey has always existed and politicians and lawyers spoke about the need to enhance the role of the president in the state. With strengthening the position of the Justice and Development Party, the idea of ​​moving to the presidential republic strengthened. The attempt of a military coup in the summer of 2016 accelerated this process.

Erdogan and his supporters say that coalition governments contribute to political instability, hamper flexible foreign policy, which causes coups. Many people remember political crises, a frequent change of government in the 70-80's. Aslanli believes than in addition to Erdogan's desire, there was also a social order conditioned by the successful economic policy of the government over the past 15 years and the society's fatigue from coalitions.

However, the presidential republic keeps the danger of slipping towards authoritarianism in the absence of a strong democracy. "Time will show in which direction the processes will go," Aslanli said.

At the same time, he noted that the victory of supporters of constitutional reform with a slight advantage increases the likelihood of growing confrontation in Turkish society. On the other hand, for the first time since 2002, Erdogan's supporters lost in all three major cities of Turkey - Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.

The referendum is an important turning point in history, but it cannot be called the final outcome of the process.

The expert believes that the results of the referendum will weaken the position of the supporters of the parliamentary republic in the countries of the Middle East. As for Azerbaijan, the referendum in Turkey will definitely strengthen the relations between Erdogan and Aliyev. During the coalition governments in Turkey, sometimes the attitude towards Azerbaijan changed; although such things took place under the government of Erdogan there was such, when Ankara signed the Zurich protocols with Yerevan. The situation with human rights is difficult, although the problems have always existing.

"Now there are problems, including arrests of journalists for their professional activities. The dilemma between freedom and security arises even in democracies. It is difficult to find a face, especially when it comes to combating terrorism. The situation in Turkey is not so bad as criticized by the West, and not as impeccable as the authorities say," Aslanli said.

As for Turkey's relations with the EU, the referendum will negatively affect them taking into account the tendency of recent years and human rights violations. However, relations with the United States began to improve, what happened after the arrival of Donald Trump. Russia took a neutral position towards the referendum and Putin did not congratulate Erdogan, which may be a harbinger of a new cooling in relations.-06D-