Reducing oil transfers to the state budget to 15% by 2025 is unattainable

Baku/25.11.21/Turan: On November 23, the Milli Majlis adopted in the second reading the draft law "On the state budget for 2022". According to the document, next year's state budget revenues are expected to amount to 26.816 million manat, and expenditures - 29.879 million manat. This is, respectively, 5.4% and 4.7% more than the approved forecasts for 2021. As a result, the budget deficit will amount to 3,063 million manat, which is 1.7% less compared to the same period last year.

What is provided for in the state budget this time? What does the Law provide for improving the well-being of the population?

The chairman of the Azerbaijan Party for Democracy and Welfare, economist Gubad Ibadoglu answered these and other questions in the "Difficult Question" program.

According to the economist, the state budget for 2022 is not much different from the previous one. “State budgets, which are the product of the same regime, of the same system, cannot differ significantly from each other. It is not possible to talk about the risks of the state budget, the degree of its correspondence to reality, focus on improving the welfare of the population, the development of the economy as a whole,” he said.

According to Gubadoglu, the state budget of 2022, like the previous ones, will be replenished mainly at the expense of oil money. Moreover, to a greater extent than before.

The expert noted that 14 billion 690 million manats will go directly to the state budget from the oil sector, which is 54.8% of the budget. Proceeds from the non-oil sector will amount to only 12 billion 126 million manats. And this is less than the expected receipts from the non-oil sector this year.

“This is a very serious negative change. But we had to pursue a policy of development of the non-oil sector. To this end, on December 6, 2016, a presidential decree was signed "On the approval of strategic roadmaps for the national economy and the main sectors of the economy." The task was set to reduce transfers to the state budget from the Oil Fund from 50 to 15% by 2025. But, in the next state budget, oil transfers to the state budget exceed 47%,” the expert said, adding that all this gives reason to believe that this goal will not be achieved in the remaining three years.

Gubadolgu noted that the first oil transfer to the state budget took place in 2003 and after that the size of transfers grew steadily until 2013. From 2013 to 2028, there was a decrease in transfers, but then the growth resumed.

“This was a serious mistake. The decline in dependence on oil should have continued. But the government's corrupt appetites did not allow it to be done,” the economist said. –0--