South Caucasus in anticipation of a new format of regional security

Baku/21.04.22/Turan: After the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow on April 19, a joint statement of 30 points was signed on strengthening allied relations and implementing previously reached agreements. What was discussed at the meeting? What is contained in the 30-point statement signed between Russia and Armenia?

Political commentator Rauf Mirkadyrov answers these and other questions in the program "Difficult Question".

According to him, the events around Ukraine are leading to fundamental changes in the regional and global security systems.

“The West has openly stated that it does not intend to cooperate with Russia to resolve regional conflicts, including the Azerbaijani-Armenian one. Those. not only the format of cooperation, but even the level of dialogue in existing formats between the West and Russia has been reduced to a minimum,” Mirkadyrov said.

In his opinion, this is a global process and it concerns not only diplomatic relations. “Today, Lavrov, who during the 44-day war sent messages to the West, making it clear that, of course, it (i.e. the West) can take part in the Karabakh settlement process, but since Russia controls the region, it makes decisions here, today he complains that, they say, Russia is ready for a dialogue with the West on Karabakh, but the latter refuses,” the observer said, adding:

“This means that the de facto institution of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs no longer exists. And it was not the 44-day war that buried  it, but the Russian-Ukrainian war. And if not forever, then for a long time.

According to the expert, today there are two competing formats on Karabakh - the one created by the President of the European Council Charles Michel together with France and the United States, which are negotiating individually, but only the United States says that they will promote a coordinated policy by the OSCE.

Mirkadyrov also noted that the importance of the South Caucasus region for the West has increased. Because the West seeks to reduce its energy dependence on Russia.

“It is clear that Azerbaijan's resources are not enough for this. However, the South Caucasus can become a transit territory for energy supplies from Central Asia and cargo from China. Moreover, against the background of the imposition of sanctions against Russia by the West, the importance of the region to prevent their circumvention is increasing. It is natural, therefore, that Russia is trying to prevent the loss of control over the region. Moreover, its toolkit is limited - it is only military. Russia has no soft power,” says Mirkadyrov.

According to him, the countries of the region are waiting for the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine.

“If the backbone of the Putin regime in Ukraine is broken, then everything will change, a new format of regional security will emerge,” he is sure.