What can tension on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border lead to?

Baku/14.09.22/Turan: On the night on September 12-13, the Armenian armed forces carried out a large-scale provocation in the Dashkesan, Kalbajar, Lachin and Zangilan directions of the Azerbaijani-Armenian state border. While preventing a large-scale provocation, 42 servicemen of the Azerbaijan Army and eight servicemen of the State Border Service were killed. In total, 50 people is the number of victims by  the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan as a result of the clash that took place in one night. What can  the tension at the border  lead to?

Political commentator Rauf Mirkadyrov comments on the current situation in the "Difficult Question" program.

He drew attention to the fact that tensions began to grow after the Brussels meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, mediated by European Council President Charles Michel.

“During this meeting, a very important agreement was reached to intensify substantive work to promote the peace treaty and instruct the foreign ministers to meet within one month to work on draft texts. It was also agreed to hold the next meeting in the same format by the end of November. Obviously, it was supposed that during this meeting the text of the peace agreement would be agreed upon,” the political scientist said. He also noted that clashes on the border began immediately after this important agreement.

Mirkadyrov believes that there is direct connection between the events on the border and the statement of the head of one of the departments of the Russian Foreign Ministry, in which the Kremlin was extremely dissatisfied with the fact that the EU wants to remove Russia from the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and in general, wants to oust Russia from the South Caucasus.

“The external force that has the ability to exert military influence on the situation may be interested in a military conflict. Only Russia is such a force.

And what do we see? Hostilities begin, Armenia simultaneously addresses the CSTO and Russia. This organization holds a summit and a decision is made to send to the region, i.e. to Armenia a group of experts headed by the Secretary General of the CSTO. All this  means that the Kremlin is behind the events on the border,” the expert is convinced.