What will the strengthening of the Azerbaijani factor in Iran lead to? - a talk with Stanislav Tarasov

In a recent episode of the "Difficult Question" program, historian and expert on Middle Eastern and Caucasian issues, Stanislav Tarasov, delved into the potential implications of a strengthened Azerbaijani factor in Iran. According to Tarasov, recent remarks by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the inaugural address by the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkiyan indicate a significant shift in Iran's foreign policy direction.

Khamenei and Pezeshkiyan have both emphasized the necessity of reevaluating Iran's relations with neighboring countries, which include Russia, China, and the Arab nations. Additionally, the Iranian leadership has highlighted the importance of normalizing relations with Western countries, particularly the United States. Pezeshkiyan, in his election campaign, underscored that lifting sanctions is crucial for Iran to overcome its severe economic challenges, as reliance solely on Russia, China, and Arab countries will not suffice.

Tarasov pointed out that Iran appears to be aligning itself with the Democratic Party in the United States. He noted that Iranian leaders are banking on a victory for Democratic representative Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election, as they believe a favorable outcome with former President Donald Trump is unlikely. Under President Biden, groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have gained strength, and there have been behind-the-scenes negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran.

The political scientist mentioned that information leaks suggest that the dialogue between the United States and Iran covers a wide range of regional policy issues. The signals Tehran is sending towards the West indicate that Iran's policy might undergo significant changes soon. "Iran will attempt to balance power between the East and the West on its territory, rather than being a zone of influence for Russia, China, or the Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia," Tarasov said.

A historic shift has occurred in Iran with the election of an ethnic Azerbaijani as president for the first time. This development, according to Tarasov, signifies a deliberate choice by the spiritual leader in favor of a new course. The elevation of an ethnic Azerbaijani to the presidency marks the activation of the Turkic factor and a revival of the dynamics from the 1920s.

Tarasov suggests that this change could lead to the mobilization of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran, enhancing their political influence and aligning more closely with Azerbaijan (the Republic of Azerbaijan). The potential for a unification movement between ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan could gain momentum under this new political climate.