Who will be an alternative to Ilham Aliyev in the elections?

Baku/20.12.23/Turan: In the early presidential elections to be held in Azerbaijan on February 7, along with current President Ilham Aliyev, Chairman of the Center for Social Research (CSI), deputy Zahid Orujh, Chairman of the People's Front of United Azerbaijan Party Gudrat Hasanguliyev, Chairman of the National Front Party Razi Nurullayev and Chairman of the Great Creation of Fazil Mustafa. In addition to them, the chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party, Elshad Musayev, and the former chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, Fuad Aliyev, also put forward their candidacies.

However, the political landscape is not without its complexities. The People's Front of Azerbaijan and Musavat parties have declared their intention to boycott the elections, adding an element of dissent to the electoral process. On the other hand, the Umid and Law and Justice parties have announced their support for the incumbent, Ilham Aliyev.

The decision to hold early presidential elections has raised eyebrows, with political commentator Rauf Mirkadyrov questioning the timing and suggesting a constitutional referendum might be more logical. Mirkadyrov argues that pressing issues such as administrative-territorial reforms, changes to the electoral system, and the status of the first vice-president demand careful consideration, potentially through a constitutional referendum.

Mirkadyrov speculates that the decision to proceed with early elections is indicative of Azerbaijan's vulnerability to external threats. He connects the timing of this decision to the Russian Federation's announcement of its own presidential elections. Mirkadyrov contends that the swift adoption of the order for early elections, coupled with actions against journalists and activists, signals a broader strategy.

The commentator suggests that President Aliyev may be concerned about external threats, with the timing allowing the elections to conclude before Russia becomes preoccupied with its own political landscape and potential conflicts, notably with Ukraine. Mirkadyrov further argues that the years 2024 and 2025 are perceived as challenging for elections due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical shifts in the region.

According to Mirkadyrov, the concentration of power in Azerbaijan has become increasingly centralized around President Aliyev and his family. The observer contends that, given the recent victory over Armenia, the president seeks not just numerical triumph in the elections but also public opinion validation. Consequently, the crackdown on journalists and critics is viewed as an effort to secure a resounding victory and maintain a veneer of political unity.

As the nation approaches the polls, the question of alternatives to Ilham Aliyev arises. Mirkadyrov suggests that those who have nominated themselves for the presidency likely gained the approval of the Presidential Administration, hinting at a controlled and orchestrated political landscape. The upcoming elections, therefore, may serve as a barometer of Azerbaijan's internal dynamics and its response to external pressures in a region undergoing significant transformations.