The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the review of Asian Development Outlook 2015 Update assumed a greater probability of a new wave of devaluation of the manat. For this purpose there are all preconditions - the persistence of low oil prices on world markets and the reduction of foreign exchange reserves - say the authors of the analytical material.
In particular, from January to September, foreign exchange reserves of the country declined by more than 30%. In addition, since September last year oil prices dropped sharply. These prices made possible the denomination of the national currency in 2006, followed by stabilization of its rate against the dollar and the euro (in August last year it was $ 103.08 price per barrel).
In addition, the drop in oil prices triggered a dollarization of deposits of the population and entrepreneurs - a month before the devaluation of the banking sector experienced the biggest problem - the amount of deposits in that currency has almost doubled, and private institutions were forced to convert manats into dollars, analysts of ADB said.
As for GDP growth for this year, the international financial structure predicts it at 3%, and next year - 2.8%. Inflation at the end of this year is expected to reach 6%, and next year - 5.5%.
With the reduction in oil prices has worsened the forecast surplus of Azerbaijan's payment balance. This year the figure is estimated at 6% of GDP (in March, the ADB predicted 12%), in 2016 - 8% of GDP. One reason is the expected decline in exports, with increased imports. --17D-
Economics
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Elon Musk, co-chair of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has outlined a strategy to bring inflation in the United States down to zero by 2026 through aggressive cuts in federal spending. Musk’s plan, which aims to reduce approximately $4 billion in projected daily expenditures, is designed to shrink the federal deficit to $1 trillion by 2026. While the deficit would still be substantial, Musk argues that accelerated economic growth could offset inflationary pressures, ultimately stabilizing the economy.
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The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has signed an agreement with Union Energy to acquire a 10% equity stake in the Tamar gas field, one of the largest offshore gas The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has signed an agreement with Union Energy to acquire a 10% equity stake in the Tamar gas field, one of the largest offshore gas projects in the Mediterranean, SOCAR said in a statement on Wednesday.projects in the Mediterranean, SOCAR said in a statement on Wednesday.
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On January 30, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has signed a decree approving the State Program for the Improvement of Transport Infrastructure in Baku and Surrounding Areas for 2025-2030, aiming to modernize the capital’s urban mobility and reduce congestion, the presidential press service said on Tuesday.
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Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts, raising its projections for Brent and Azeri Light crude by $2 per barrel for both 2025 and 2026, setting the estimate at $78 per barrel. The adjustment reflects expectations of tighter supply conditions driven by geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanctions affecting Russian oil production and potential future restrictions on Iranian crude exports.
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