How to read Turkish election predictions

The lack of democratic elections in Azerbaijan turns our people into fans of the political system of neighboring Turkey.

In the last few days, predictions about the results of the Turkish elections, which are approaching, have been systematically expressed, referring to the results of various polls. It is said that this or that candidate will win.

This was especially fueled by the announcement that the elections will be started on March 10 and the fact that the candidate of the opposition bloc was determined yesterday.

I have been closely following Turkish elections for many years (32 years) and during my 10 years of living there, I have closely observed numerous election processes. Nevertheless, when making any argument, I try to express my opinion only after concrete statistics and certain studies.

Often, research companies affiliated with various parties release polls on how Turkey's elections will turn out. I wasn't lazy. I analyzed the results of the polls released in the 2 months before the June 24, 2018, presidential and parliamentary elections.

In 2018, exactly 2 months before the elections, the parties decided their ranks as now, and there were two serious blocs (People's Alliance and Nation Alliance) and HDP, which did not join the bloc, in the election race.

I researched the results of a total of 11 different surveys conducted by different companies in May and June 2018. At that time, it was reported that the average number of respondents participating in each survey was around 3,666 people.

When I determined the average result of all surveys, I noticed a very interesting public opinion diversion. The survey companies or those who ordered them actually manipulated the society 2 months before the election with artificial exaggerations, if we assume that they are not unprofessional...

The votes and poll results of the parties participating in the 2018 parliamentary elections, as well as the difference between them, are as follows:

As can be seen from the table, the AKP obtained 8.14% higher results than the polls. The results of the MHP generally discredited the polls. MHP received 74.80% more votes than expected. HDP also managed to exceed the poll results, albeit a little - by 0.45%.

However, the CHP received 4.43%, the IYI Party 26.76%, and the Felicity Party 47.60% fewer votes than expected. In other words, polls showed that the ruling party had less chance to win elections but the opposition party had more chance. The margin of error was not 1-2%, but much higher.

The votes and poll results of the alliances participating in the 2018 parliamentary elections, as well as the difference between them, are as follows:

On the basis of alliances, the margin of error in the polls was 36%. The People's Alliance received 17.74% more votes than the estimates of the polls, while the Nation Alliance lagged behind by 18.81% of the estimates of the polls. The margin of error in HDP was below 1%.

Regarding the results of the presidential elections, 6 candidates were registered in 2018. Current President Erdoğan, Muharrem İnce from CHP, Demirtaş from HDP, IYI Party leader M. Akşener, Felicity Party leader T. Karamollaoğlu, and Workers' Party leader D. Perinçek.

The average number of participants in the 25 questionnaires surveyed from 2 months before the elections to the week of the elections was 3,444 people. You can see the difference between the results of the polls and the actual results of the elections in the table below:

It is seen that polling companies have seriously stumbled in the presidential elections. Erdoğan received 12% more votes than expected. M. İnce, who resigned later saying that the CHP did not own him, also discredited the poll estimates and received 16.83% more votes. When comparing the poll results of the other 4 candidates with the election results, it is clear that the polls are seriously exaggerated. Demirtaş received 20.38%, Akşener 48.21%, T. Karamollaoğlu 57%, and Perinçek 46% fewer votes than in the polls.

Of course, the purpose of this study is not to believe or not to believe the results of survey companies. Everyone is free to believe what they want. However, it is necessary to be more careful when making judgments and guesses and to doubt that every given data is necessarily the right data.

Differences of 2-4% in the results of questionnaire surveys may seem possible in terms of not choosing the right methodology. But the error of 20-70%, if not intentional, is seriously unprofessional, and a prediction cannot be made with those results.

In conclusion, on March 10, 2023, the decree on the presidential elections in Turkey will be signed and the interesting and contentious elections will begin. Our society will watch these interesting elections from the stands with interest.

I wish success to all of Turkey in its race for democracy. The winner of the democratic elections will be Turkey!

Note: The names of survey companies are: Optimar, SONAR, KONDA, Vera, MAK, ORC, Argetus, AKAM, REMRES, Mediar, Piar, Consensus, and Gezici.