Seismologist: "Seismic hearths in Azerbaijan may wake up"

On February 6, two earthquakes occurred in Turkey - the epicenter of the first, with a magnitude of 7.7 points, was the Pazarjik district of the city of Kahramanmarash and 9 hours later, with a magnitude of 7.6 points, in the Elbistan region of the same city. As a result of two strong earthquakes that occurred one after another, the death toll in 11 cities and regions of Turkey approached 40,000, and the number of injured - 110,000 people. The earthquake was so strong that it caused destruction in many neighboring regions of Turkey. In Syria, more than 3,000 people are reported to have died as a result of the earthquake.

After this natural disaster, called the catastrophe of the century, many countries sent aid and rescuers to Turkey. The catastrophe in the fraternal country caused panic among the citizens of Azerbaijan. Everyone is now thinking about the questions - can an earthquake happen in Azerbaijan in the near future? Are buildings built in recent years resistant to earthquakes?

Associate Professor Gulam Babayev, the head of the Department of Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Institute of Geology and Geophysics of the Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Doctor of Geosciences,  Answered ASTNA questions.

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Question: After the earthquake in Turkey, it is predicted that this natural disaster could happen again in Turkey or Azerbaijan. How scientifically based are these predictions?

Answer: There are 3 main types of earthquake forecast: short-term, medium, and long term. People are interested and concerned about the short-term forecast. It includes the location, strength, and time of the earthquake. As a seismologist, I would even add here the depth of the earthquake source. This is also an important parameter. It's impossible to pinpoint all of this. Simply, based on the activity and intensity of the movements of tectonic plates, on the processes of their collisions and as a result of the occurrence of earthquakes, one can presumably say that neighboring plates and faults associated with them can become more active. Based on simple laws of physics (dynamics, statics, inertia, etc.). That is, there is a possibility of activation. This, in turn, can cause new earthquakes. Seismic sources may wake up.

Question: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia,  and Armenia are located in a seismic regions. On the territory of the listed countries, strong earthquakes have repeatedly occurred. Especially in Turkey over the past 25 years, there have been several times strong earthquakes. Why, despite this, Turkey was caught unawares by the current natural disaster? Why was Turkey so careless about the threat of an earthquake that could happen at any moment?

Answer: Yes, it is. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia are located in the seismic region. Turkish seismologists characterize this region as a seismically dangerous zone. Based on parameter maps characterizing various seismic hazards, they obtained the necessary results. However, no one, not a single seismologist can say the exact strength, time of an earthquake, no matter how well he is aware, to what extent he uses modern robotic, automated devices. It is impossible to even predict that it will be of such strength. Theoretically, the aftershocks that usually follow the main shock of an earthquake are somewhat weaker. However, during this earthquake, after the main shock, an earthquake of approximately the same strength (magnitude) followed, causing an earthquake of the same magnitude nearby. This once again proves that it is impossible to meet a catastrophe in complete clarity and readiness.`

Question: Some argue that the latest earthquake in Turkey was artificially caused by tectonic weapons. Is it possible?

Answer: No, an earthquake of such magnitude cannot be caused by tectonic weapons, by artificial means. There is no weapon capable of causing an earthquake of such magnitude as in Turkey. That is, an earthquake of such magnitude cannot be artificially caused by a weapon. Humanity has not yet invented such a weapon.

Question: Is Azerbaijan ready for the threat of an earthquake?

Answer: Large construction companies (state, private) should prepare for this threat. We scientists use new methods to regularly map the threat of earthquakes.  But the death of people is not from earthquakes. This can happen in exceptional cases, for example, if someone has a weak heart and during tremors from fear, a cardiovascular problem may occur, the person may pass out or die from fear. The cause of loss of life is mainly non-seismic, unstable buildings, unprofessionally built houses. They are the ones who kill people.

Question: What steps should be taken in advance to reduce loss and destruction from earthquakes? What security measures need to be taken?

Answer: First, the buildings must be built in accordance with seismic requirements. I would like to take Japan as an example. This country cannot predict an earthquake in advance, but look at how it has made a leap in the construction industry. During the last strong earthquake, the buildings simply shook, but did not collapse. They firmly established the foundations. Previously, they could not cope with a simple tsunami. But that is a topic for another conversation. This is the type of hazard caused by an earthquake of the second hazard category. In a word, the stability and strength of buildings must be assessed, the buildings under construction must be seismic resistant. During construction, it is necessary to check the coefficient of increase or decrease of seismic waves, take other measures related to construction.