Where will the probabilities lead?

In a dramatic political shift, Turkey has elevated the “Kurdish issue” to a top national priority, signaling renewed focus on unity and security amid escalating foreign pressures. Following Turkey’s recent pivot away from BRICS at a Shanghai summit, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his nationalist ally, Devlet Bahçeli, are calling for solidarity in the face of deepening regional tensions — with Bahçeli even inviting the imprisoned leader of a Kurdish militant group to address Parliament in an unexpected appeal for peace.

Israel’s strike on Iranian targets on October 26, described as a response to Iran's prior attack on October 1, has raised questions about the relationship between these two longstanding adversaries.

In the past two decades, Turkey has embarked on its third significant attempt at a "Kurdish opening" process, marking a pivotal moment in the country’s complex relationship with its Kurdish population.

In a rare moment of diplomatic openness, Iranian President Masoud Pezeşkian has pledged to resolve the lingering tensions surrounding the attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran. During an October 14 meeting with Azerbaijan’s Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev, Pezeşkian underscored the importance of deepening cooperation between the two countries, signaling a shift from the sometimes hostile rhetoric that has marked relations between Tehran and Baku in recent years.