Far-right NATO critic seen winning Romanian presidential runoff vote

Reuters: BUCHAREST (Reuters) - Romanians vote in a presidential election runoff on Sunday that could see Calin Georgescu, a far-right critic of NATO, defeat pro-European centrist Elena Lasconi, an outcome that might isolate Romania in the West and erode its support for Ukraine.

The vote is the last of three consecutive ballots for both a new parliament and president in the European Union and NATO member state in which the far right has surged amid deepening distrust in state institutions after multiple economic crises and Russia's full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

Polling stations will open at 0500 GMT and close at 1900 GMT, with exit polls on the result to follow quickly.

Georgescu, 62, a self-styled outsider who considers Russian President Vladimir Putin a true leader and patriot, stunned the Romanian mainstream and European allies when he emerged from relative obscurity as the winner of the Nov. 24 first round.

With suspicions of Russian influence swirling - denied by Moscow - and Romania's state security council accusing TikTok of social media manipulation to Georgescu's advantage - denied by TikTok, that first round went into recount but the top court ultimately validated the vote on Monday.

If Georgescu wins on Sunday, analysts say, it would upend Romania's politics, pushing it closer to a belt of states in central and eastern Europe with powerful far-right, Russia-friendly politicians, including Hungary, Slovakia and Austria.

Opinion polls show Georgescu's public support running at nearly 60% but with roughly 40% of voters saying they are undecided, the election is difficult to call, they say.

"It is hard to anticipate the result," said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University. "Barring a great mobilisation by the undecided, he will win."

Lasconi, 52, appealed to voters this week to ensure Romania does not change course. "We must choose between NATO protection and Putin's war. We must choose between the EU's prosperity and freedom of movement, or the sound of tanks coming from the Kremlin."

Turning right

Georgescu cast himself as an outsider fighting a corrupt entrenched political class beholden to foreign interests, a message that resonated with many voters frustrated with mainstream parties consumed by infighting and graft allegations.

"The political class has bowed to the West from a kneeling position," he told Reuters on Wednesday. "From this moment it will not be so."

If elected, he will pick who has the first try at forming a government after the Dec. 1 parliamentary vote. Georgescu said he will designate a premier from a parliamentary majority but one who would work with him to enforce his national vision.

While the ruling Social Democrat (PSD) finished first with 22.6%, far-right groupings expanded their parliamentary presence and said they want a shot at power.

Mainstream parties, including the PSD and Lasconi's Save Romania Union (USR), are expected to struggle to formulate a policy platform amid disagreements on how to handle the country's vast budget gap - 8% of GDP, the EU's highest.

"2025 will be an extraordinarily difficult year for a governing majority," said Cristian Pirvulescu, a political scientist. "Keeping the president in check is a hard task when you have economic and social turmoil, so it is difficult to believe parliament will mobilise all the instruments it has."

Romania's president has a semi-executive role which includes commanding the armed forces and chairing the council that decides on military aid and defence spending.

The president represents Romania at EU and NATO summits and appoints chief judges, prosecutors and secret service heads. Like Hungary's Viktor Orban has done before, Romania's next president could veto important EU votes that require unanimity.

Since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, Romania has helped export millions of tons of Ukrainian grain through its Black Sea port of Constanta, trained Ukrainian fighter pilots and donated a Patriot air defence battery to Kyiv.

Georgescu told Reuters he will oppose continued grain exports and further military aid to Kyiv if elected, adding Bucharest is not obliged to stick to NATO's defence spending commitments.

A devout Orthodox Christian, Georgescu opposes abortion and gay marriage and has a Romania-first approach which includes different taxation for foreign versus local companies. He has praised Romania's brutal 1930s fascist leaders.