International Crisis Group on the prospects of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict

Baku/04.01.24/Turan: Although the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is now over, risks still remain. This is stated in the International Crisis Group's report "10 Conflicts to Watch out for in 2024".

"Diplomatic efforts to end hostilities around the world are failing. More and more leaders are achieving their goals through military means. They believe they can overcome this," the document says.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan section of the report says that the military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh last year displaced nearly all of its residents - more than 100,000 people - from the region.

"The question this year is whether Azerbaijan will go further, or whether Baku and Yerevan will finally find a path to peace given that the negotiations made some progress at the end of 2023."

Since the 2020 war and Azerbaijan's September 2021 offensive, border clashes have been more deadly than in Karabakh itself. More importantly, Azerbaijan wants a land corridor to Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani enclave in the southwest bordering Turkey and Iran.

This route would facilitate trade with Turkey but bypass Iran - which is why Tehran opposes it. It could also help Russia avoid sanctions, although this is already happening through existing routes.

"The December agreement, reached without third parties, provided for the exchange of prisoners of war. It is also committed to normalising relations and includes Armenia's support for Azerbaijan's bid to host the COP-29 World Climate Summit in 2024. Baku and Yerevan stated that they would continue negotiations. Although the corridor issues remain, an agreement could be reached soon", the report said.-03-