Iran is a hostage of its own politics

Baku/07.10.21/Turan: Analysis of the causes of the aggravation of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations in recent days is the main topic of recent days. It should be noted that the deterioration of the situation practically coincided with the change of power in Iran after the Presidential elections and the election of former Prosecutor General Ebrahim Raisi to the post of the head of the state. There was another strengthening of the positions of conservative circles which affected foreign policy. At the same time, it is the line of the country's leader, Hamenei, who set the tone for attacks on Azerbaijan.

However, the appearance of conservatives on the political arena of the country is not the only reason. After Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Karabakh War, Tehran's position in the region weakened and it lost most of its leverage over Baku. This concerns the liberation of 132 km of the border between the two countries from occupation, and Baku's access to large water reservoirs – Gyzgalasy and Khudaferin.

Now Iran is obliged to share not only water, but also electricity from these stations – it was under these conditions that they were built on the border of the two countries.

Besides, Turkey has come to the region with its military potential. All this has made the Turkic factor very dangerous, and Tehran is waiting for the activation of separatism in South Azerbaijan.

Tehran's abrupt steps found no understanding and support in Moscow.

They made it clear that Russia is not afraid of the "presence of Zionists" in the region; on the contrary, of Iran's sharp steps. Moreover, Tehran's rash actions may disrupt the peace process and the opening of communications.

Iran's desire to pursue its own line on these issues aimed at squeezing Turkey and dictating its agenda to Russia, clearly irritate both Ankara and Moscow.

Note that maintaining Tehran's hard line will damage Iran's position. Having lost the trust of Baku and Ankara, Tehran will be content with warm relations with Yerevan for the sake of one land road to Armenia.

However, Armenia is interested in opening roads, including railways and highways through Zangezur. Flights from Baku to Nakhchivan through the territory of Armenia have shown that, unlike Iran, they are able to predict the further development of the situation to Armenia.

If until recently Iran could be sure that Azerbaijan would provide it with political and international support to ease or circumvent sanctions, now it is unlikely to happen. Tehran will have to come to terms with the idea that issues in the region will be resolved without him. -05B-