Putin's war as assessed by experts in Azerbaijan, Russia and Ukraine

Baku24.02.22/Turan: Kiev experts report in social networks on developments in Ukraine. Known in Azerbaijan for analytical reports on the Karabakh war, military expert Oleksiy Arestovich has reported on missile strikes in the areas of Kiev, Dnipro, Odessa, Kherson, Nikolayev, Kharkiv, Chuguyev and Kramatorsk.  Russia is hitting military airfields, air defence positions and command posts. Russian troops have crossed the border near Kharkiv.

The Ukrainian armed forces are fighting against the enemy.

Arestovich predicts: it will be very scary for the first two days. Then the fear will go away, the habit will appear (strange it may sound). The main thing is not to do too much foolishness in the first two days.

He urges to remember:

1) Putin is not interested in hitting civilians, he needs a relatively loyal country at his side, they still need to keep and maintain relations with us after the war is over.

2) The Russian Federation's stockpile of cruise missiles is far from endless. Sooner or later, sooner rather than later, strikes on cities and neighborhoods will stop.

3) Our air defenses are quite reliable, that is why they have not risked active use of aircraft yet.

4) Reaction of the international community will follow soon, we will not be left alone, militarily, economically or humanely.

The main thing is to believe the official channels only (for a wave of heartbreaking fakes has already started), and help each other.

The Russian Federation does not have the power and means to seize Ukraine. Putin's expectations are based on panic, psychological pressure and internal collapse in Ukraine.

"It is very important not to allow scenarios in your head where we have lost.  Set yourself up for victory - it will immediately become easier and the mood will appear," advises Arestovich, a military expert.

Moscow analyst Kirill Krivosheyev wrote in Meta:

- My colleagues have speculated on how the US will bear the image blow after the war they have announced does not start. I don't condemn them - I myself have lived under the illusion that people at the top have reason. But know this, any sneeze from a State Department, intelligence, Pentagon source in any Western media will now be taken as absolute, crystal-clear truth. Putin has done everything for it.

Farhad Mammadov, former director of the AR Presidential Centre for Analytical Studies:

-This is the beginning of a protracted military-political confrontation, which will lead to the emergence of a new system of relations in the world. We can assume this is not the only war and it will rumble somewhere else... Asia, for example.

The time has come for debt forgiveness and repudiation. A nuclear power can't lose a war, or else use it. Economic sanctions and refusal to trade with Russia will lead to economic consequences for all, especially Russia.

Domestic processes can lead to regime changes, not on the part of the electorate, but on the part of the elite. There will be no return of the exported capital. Blocs involving Russia will weaken, since the confrontation will reach absolute proportions and the West will not allow Russia to make money through other countries.

Russia's goal is to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, otherwise the problems caused by the war could deplete reserves. Right now the reserves are two to four years away.

What will the new system of relations be like? Not all major players in the current system will be able to maintain their positions in the future period. There will be new actors and a new system, perhaps not the same for the whole world, differentiated by regions. 

Azerbaijan has done its best in the current difficult situation. It is important to secure the country and the region as a whole against confrontation - war. In times of Great Wars, one has to localise one's aspirations and expectations, and most importantly, one's actions.-0-