What is going on in Karabakh?

Baku/15.02.23/Turan: In recent days, Armenian sources have reported growing divisions among Karabakh separatist leaders. In particular, between the supporters of "president" Aric Harutyunyan and "state minister" Ruben Vardanyan.

The day before, an event occurred that further confused the situation and baffled outside observers. Thus, Araik Harutyunyan announced the beginning of "constitutional reform".  The proposed "reform" is formulated as follows: election of the "president" of Karabakh is carried out by the "parliament" if the post of the "president" becomes vacant during the martial law.

From this not very clear phrase, formulated purely in Armenian, we can conclude that Arik wants to resign and leave the election of the next Karabakh leader to the conscience of the parliament.

It is notable that this initiative followed Araik Harutyunyan's trip to Russia and the visit of Ruben Vardanyan there afterwards.

If the question is about who will replace Araik, further developments of the situation - towards peace with Azerbaijan or towards a new war - may depend on it.

Almost simultaneously with Araik's initiative on reforms, there was reportedly a criminal case against Vitaly Balsanyan, who until recently had been one of the main negotiators with official Baku.

A day later the former Karabakh commander Samvel Babayan, who had never concealed his claim to be the leader of the Karabakh Armenians, stepped up his activities. In a lengthy statement Babayan actually accused Araik Harutyunyan of inconsistency and delayed reforms, poor personnel policies and management style. At the same time he says that he does not want to be in power where all responsibility falls on the first person and everyone else is not responsible or accountable for anything.

It is difficult to draw an unequivocal conclusion from what is happening. However, it will be easier to assess the prospects of developments after Ruben Vardanian speaks. So far he has taken a radical position on relations with Baku.

His first interview after his return from Moscow will help shed light on the question of whether his position has changed and what will happen to Karabakh in the future. -02B-