Armenians choose not war, but departure from the region

David Babayan posing as the "Minister of Foreign Affairs of Nagorno-Karabakh," said that the Karabakh solution has two paths: a big war (meaning victory over Azerbaijan - ed.) or the departure of all Armenians from the region. Statistics show that Armenians do not choose war, but prefer the second option.

For example, Eurasianet.org reports that during the war more than 130 thousand Armenians fled to Armenia (UN data). The Minister of Labor and Social Affairs of Armenia calculated that 35 thousand people remained in Armenia. According to the information of the Russian peacekeepers, about 73 thousand Armenians did not return to Karabakh.

These numbers are questionable. Information about the departure of the Armenian population is concealed. Uncertainty about the future of Armenians is growing as the end of the five-year term of the Russian peacekeepers is approaching. If Baku demands the withdrawal of Russian troops in 2025, this could end Armenian rule in Karabakh, EurasiaNet writes.

However, according to Western diplomats, 70 thousand Armenians lived in Karabakh in 2010, and by 2020 it dropped to 55 thousand people. The   Russian peacekeepers confirmed this. After the end of last year's 44-day war, the Russian peacekeeping contingent organized the return of Armenians to Karabakh, and on January 14, 21, 49,461 people returned here. After that, the return departure of Armenians from Karabakh began. As President Ilham Aliyev stated in Karabakh, about 25,000 local Armenians remain.

The Karabakh Armenians move to Armenia, and from there they go abroad with the passport of this country, joining the statistics of the Armenian emigration. According to the Statistical Service of Armenia, the population growth in this country in January-July 2021 was only 1,252 people. This is 1.8 times less than the indicator for the same period last year. If the reported data are compared with the indicator for January-July 2019, the decline will be almost 2.9 times.

NEWS.am reports, the increasing emigration of the country's residents negatively affects the dynamics of the resident population of Armenia. Data on the entry of Armenians into the Russian Federation are given. In 2018-2020 and January-June of this year, 103.6 thousand people took Russian citizenship. Of these, 21.9 thousand people (or 21% of the total) fell on January-June of this year.

Last year, 30.5 thousand people received Russian citizenship, of which 14.1 thousand people accounted for the first half of 2020. Armenian experts say emigration is clearly on the rise.

Here are data only on moving to Russia, while Armenians choose other countries for a new place of residence. The emigration record of last year is expected to be surpassed this year.

Chairman of the Commission on Migration Issues of the Public Council, expert on migration issues Gagik Yeganyan said that migration sentiment had grown greatly. “We haven't had such a picture for at least 25 years,” he said.

In January-March 2021, according to official data, 63,713 citizens irrevocably left Armenia. Since April this figure has increased by 16 827, in May - by 8 314. Thus, the negative balance of passenger traffic for the first 5 months of the year has already approached 90 000. Some of them are former residents of Karabakh.

President of the independent International Association "21st Century" Arkady Vartanyan in 2000 in the article "Sad melodies of the duduk" argued that as a result of the systemic crisis in Armenia, a massive "non-stop migration" began, as a result of which, at the time of writing the article, the population of the country had already decreased from 3,6 million people up to 1.3 - 1.5 million people.