Azerbaijan: Important political events of 2020

• I. 30.01.20: The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution “The case of reports in connection with political prisoners in Azerbaijan”, which proposes “to solve the problem of political prisoners once and for all”.
• II. 09.02.20: Early elections to the Milli Mejlis of Azerbaijan.
• III. 27.02.20: An Operational Headquarters was created under the Cabinet of Ministers with the participation of the heads of the relevant state agencies In order to prevent the risks associated with coronavirus, to carry out prompt preventive measures.
• IV.19.03.20: The head of state addressed the population of the country on the Novruz holiday. Ilham Aliyev said that it is not possible to hold mass events and did not rule out an emergency and neutralization of the “fifth column” represented by the opposition.
• V.13.04.20: Internet access of the leader of the Popular Front Party Ali Karimli is blocked. Arrests of opposition activists began.
• VI. 02.06.20: Humanitarian crisis on the Russian-Azerbaijani border. Thousands of people cannot return to Azerbaijan.
• VII. 04.06.20: Crisis between Georgia and Azerbaijan due to the monastery complex David Gareji (Keshikchi Dag).
• VIII. 12.07.20: The Armenian army launched an artillery attack on the Azerbaijani positions in the Tovuz direction. The fighting lasted three days.
• IX. 27.09.20: Fighting began in Karabakh. By the decree of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, martial law has been introduced in Azerbaijan since 28 September.
• X. 10.11.20: President Ilham Aliyev, during a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, signed a joint statement by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia to end the war.

The 2020 year in Azerbaijan passed under the influence of the pandemic and the Second Karabakh war. However, it should be noted that the year began with troubles in the area of ​​two basic problems - a sharp drop in energy prices and a resolution of the Council of Europe demanding that the issue of political prisoners be resolved finally.

These two directions subsequently influenced the social and political life of the country. In the first case, social tension increased in connection with a reduction in the inflow of petrodollars, as the main subscription to savings, and in the second case, taking advantage of the influx of the coronavirus pandemic, the authorities decided to eliminate opposition from the political scene in an emergency.

An emergency arose in the country after the creation on February 27 of the Operational Headquarters under the Cabinet of Ministers to combat the pandemic, which included restricting the freedoms of citizens, including a ban on holding mass events. On March 19, on the eve of the Novruz spring holiday, President Ilham Aliyev openly stated that he was ready to deal a crushing blow to the opposition in an emergency, which drew criticism in the West. Subsequently, the society witnessed a series of arrests of activists of the Popular Front parties, Musavat and a number of public organizations.

By the summer, political activity in the state of emergency came to naught. After July 12, when three-day artillery battles began on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in the Tovuz region, causing a surge of patriotism and a thirst for war in both countries, the opposition to the power of society remained only in the virtual network.

Subsequently, two and a half months later, on September 27, the Second Karabakh War began. There is a debate about who started the first hostilities. The truth must be sought in the middle - both sides were striving to fight, each believing in their victory. The war ended on November 10 with the signing of a Peace Declaration by Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. According to the agreement, Azerbaijan returned seven regions occupied by Armenia in 1992-1993, and restored control over 1/3 of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the city of Shusha. A Russian peacekeeping contingent has been brought into the territories controlled by the Armenian community of NK for a period of 5 years.

The entire course of hostilities was simultaneously observed by the Russian-Turkish tandem, which did not allow the conflict to grow beyond the borders of Azerbaijan, contributed to its localization after the surrender of Armenia and created conditions for further pacification of the conflict within the framework of the established Russian-Turkish Monitoring Center for Nagorno-Karabakh in Agdam. In order to balance the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Russia, Turkey, and the West in the Karabakh region, France and the Francophonie states (Belgium, Luxembourg) represented by parliaments adopt resolutions threatening to recognize the independence of NK in case of infringement of the interests of Armenians.

Towards the end of the outgoing year, the OSCE Minsk Group, following the visit of the co-chairs to the region, noted the existing new realities and announced a new negotiation process taking into account the status quo in 2021. There was also an announcement about mass vaccination against coronavirus from the beginning of the New Year, which should also contribute to the process of revitalizing the economy and social stabilization. The war also demonstrated the possibility of constructive cooperation between the authorities, society and the opposition. Therefore, we should expect a revival of dialogue towards economic and political reforms in 2021.

Mehman Aliyev