Azerbaijan. Testing with coronavirus

The dynamics of the pandemic and the measures taken by the authorities demonstrate the incompetence and criminal negligence of the government. The measures were and are half-hearted, inconsistent and controversial. The government then allowed, from forbidding the movement of citizens, then shutting down retail facilities and enterprises, then opening them, imposing curfews for a couple of days a week, and on other days people neglected safety and communicated extensively.

In this situation, society suffers psychological, material, and moral losses. Everyone asks, “What to do next?” All are tired – citizens and the police. Statistics show that all measures and recommendations of the government, which is distrusted, are formal in nature and do not give the necessary result - the dynamics of the pandemic reduction.

The material resources of society in the conditions of the economic crisis and unemployment are depleted, tension is growing. The question is what to do -continue the policy of partial isolation or abandon it completely?

Ways

Since the beginning of the spread of coronavirus, the world has gone in two ways.

The first is called the Chinese model. Tough quarantine measures, restrictions on movement, self-isolation, mandatory wearing of masks, disinfection, restrictions on meeting people.

Second way is the Swedish model. Free movement, freedom of assembly, ongoing economic activity. At the same time, individual protection measures were encouraged. Belarus also has chosen this way. There are hybrid variants of these two extremes, for example, Great Britain.

Azerbaijan has missed the first variant of behavior. It was well implemented in China, Singapore, South Korea, Georgia, and others. The indicated countries nullified the pandemic and after 2-3 months began to restore in-country economic relations, even such a sensitive field as tourism.

It is difficult to repeat such an experience now - time is lost, society is tired of conflicting decisions and is not ready to continue playing the formal game of fighting the pandemic.

We did not go through the version of Sweden and Belarus, so it is worth paying attention to it. He is also interesting because there are many false insinuations about him. However, he is not as scary as he is imagined.

The Swedish model is now less criticized than in the first months of the pandemic. The Swedes themselves in the majority (more than half) support the government’s policy regarding coronavirus and pay little attention to the increase in mortality that was provoked by COVİD-19.

Since the beginning of the epidemic, Sweden has lived a normal life, and citizens adhered to the rules of protection, based on personal need and desire. Although the economy sank, which is connected with foreign economic activity, it did not affect the well-being of the population, unlike Azerbaijan. The policy of no restrictions allowed supporting the business community and minimizing bankruptcies and a drop in the level of social well-being of the population.

Statistics

Sweden is mostly criticized for its large death statistics. True, recently, the number of deaths has begun to decline markedly. Today in Sweden, there are more than 73.3 thousand sick and 5447 deaths. If by mid-June, an average of 50 people died per day, now this figure has decreased to half.

The population of Sweden, like Azerbaijan, totals 10 million people.

Sweden - Total mortality rate of 9.1 (per 1,000 people) in 2019

Azerbaijan - Total mortality rate of 6.8 (per 1,000 people) in 2019

Reference: The overall mortality rate shows the number of deaths occurring during the year, per 1000 population, as estimated by the middle of the year. Subtraction of the total mortality rate from the total fertility rate shows an increase in the rate of natural growth, which is equal to the rate of change in population in the absence of migration.

Sweden - Share of population over the age of 65 - 20.2% (2 million people) in 2019.

Azerbaijan - Proportion of people over 65 6.4% (640 thousand people) in 2019.

Sweden - Life expectancy is 82 years.

Azerbaijan - Average duration - 72 years (Given the doubtfulness of our official statistics, it can be stated that the figure is too high. Walk around the cemeteries and pay attention to the age of the deceased in recent years. There is other evidence. There is more about them below).

Sweden - people over 80 years old - 500 thousand

Azerbaijan - people over 80 years old - 70 thousand

Now pay attention –even without coronavirus in Azerbaijan, the group of pensioners includes 640 thousand people. Of these, only 70 thousand step over the 80-year. So how can life expectancy be 72 years?

Statistics in developed countries show that in the overwhelming cases, elderly people with serious chronic diseases (respiratory diseases, cancer, and severe diabetes) die from the effects of coronavirus.

In Sweden, half of the dead fell on residents of nursing homes. This is the biggest problem with the Swedish coronavirus strategy - 9 out of 10 coronavirus deaths in Sweden are over 70 years old. Half of them lived in nursing homes.

The number of people who die this year is comparable to the number of people who die each year as a result of the flu epidemic in nursing homes,” says Thomas Linden, Head of Department at the National Board of Health and Social Welfare (Socialstyrelsen) of Sweden.

In Sweden, an average of 90 thousand people die or 7.5 thousand per month.

In Azerbaijan, an average of 71 thousand or 5.9 thousand per month dies per year.

We have no data on what was the population decline in Sweden for 5 months of 2020. They can show the real situation. If this figure is 9 thousand and above, then we can talk about the pandemic as a cause of the growth in mortality.

There is information that in April 2020, 10.4 thousand people died in Sweden. This number can only be compared with December 1993, when 11 thousand people died in Sweden during the seasonal flu epidemic.

It is believed that if in Azerbaijan the number of elderly people, over 80 years old would have been as much as in Sweden, and then the death rate provoked by the pandemic would be commensurate with the Swedish one. High mortality in developed countries (Italy, France), where there are many old people aged 80 years and above. High mortality rates due to them.

This is confirmed by statistics of Belarus and Ukraine similar to Azerbaijan. The average life expectancy in Belarus is 74 years, and in Ukraine - 72 years. In these countries, mortality is also younger. A small number of people live up to 80 years.

It is noteworthy that in Belarus, commensurate with Sweden, 64 thousand, and 430 deaths. In Ukraine, 50.7 thousand, 1300 deaths.

In general, not everything is so simple.

Pandemic victory, economic defeat

In the world, there is no consensus on the effectiveness of the introduction of quarantine. Many are confident that it will not save against a pandemic, but it will certainly kill the economy. According to the Minister of Health of Belarus Vladimir Karanik, the following measures were recognized as the most effective in the world: identification and social isolation of patients and their contacts, as well as self-isolation of people over 70 years of age. Quarantine (as is the case with students) does not necessarily reduce the spread of the virus, often even the other way around.

It is necessary to add measures to strengthen the human immune system. Azerbaijan has a very weak policy on a balanced diet, on the use of vitamins, nutritional supplements, and especially among children. Younger people die from coronavirus in Azerbaijan than in Sweden. This is not superfluous evidence of weak immunity, the painful state of society.

Recent large-scale restrictions on business activity have exacerbated the situation. There are areas that are 4 months in stagnation, and people are left without salaries. Poverty is growing, and the quality of nutrition is deteriorating, and as a result, the immune system becomes even more vulnerable. Among people who died from coronavirus, there are many people of middle and pre-retirement age.

The government, which has shown its incompetence in the situation of force majeure, must immediately form a commission instead of the Operational Headquarters with the participation of scientists, experts from non-governmental organizations and begin discussions on further steps. Time does not wait.

I would not like to think that the tightening of quarantine measures, up to curfew on Sundays and the growth of the infected, as well as the hysteria surrounding them, is connected with the desire to get financial assistance and loans from international financial institutions. I recall that the growth of the infected, the tightening of the quarantine regime and the hype surrounding the pandemic began after negotiations with the EBRD and ADB. The Azerbaijani authorities stubbornly connect the economic crisis with the pandemic and tirelessly talk about it with international institutions. Although experts predicted a reasonable forecast for the upcoming crisis in late 2019 and early 2020 before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and a fall in oil prices.

Last month, President of Belarus A. Lukashenko said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which the republic had previously requested "quick" financial support against the background of a coronavirus in the amount of about $900 million, demanded a quarantine or curfew from Minsk. However, Lukashenko refused this.

Azerbaijan. Even worse, if people desperate from unemployment and poverty can go out into the streets where the police and the army will meet them. Army units are already on patrol. The use of the army on the streets with 12 thousand numbers of internal troops, of which only a part is involved, is alarming.

This is another indicator that the government is stubbornly leading the country along the path of developing the worst scenario. Everyone needs to realize that it is time to stop before it is too late.