Communications in Karabakh Region, Realities, Opinions

Azerbaijan has defined its "scope of work"

Back in January, President Ilham Aliyev named the following railway projects among the priorities - first the Horadiz-Zangilan road, then the Zangilan-Nakhchivan road, then the Nakhchivan-Turkey road.

And on February 14, Aliyev laid the foundation of the Horadiz-Agbend railway (a settlement in the Zangilan region) in Fizuli region - a section with a length of 100 km.

As explained to ASTNA by transport expert, TRACECA project coordinator for Azerbaijan Rufat Bayramov, the Horadiz-Agbend section is the longest section on the planned route to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR), which was blockaded for almost 30 years due to the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

“The Horadiz-Agbend railway is a demonstration of Azerbaijan's intentions to ease tension in relations with Armenia. On the negotiating table of government experts is the link between the Zangilan region and the NAR through a 43-kilometer (according to other sources, 47-kilometer) section in the territory of Armenia. And we also need a 16-kilometer line to Ordubad.

Turkey is going to build a road from Igdir to Sharur in the NAR, contributing to the creation of a short route, which, taking into account the goodwill of the parties, will connect the countries of the South Caucasus with Turkey in the south and with the Russian Federation in the north, and may also become an additional bonus for trade and transport corridor East-West.

“Regional transport projects play an important role for long-term development, ensuring stability and reducing the risk of war to zero, and all countries in the region will benefit from this. Azerbaijan (through the implementation of these projects) is connected with Nakhchivan, with Turkey. At the same time, Russia may open a railway to Armenia. Also, these projects will allow Russia and Iran to have a railway connection with Nakhchivan and Turkey,” said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, visiting the Lachin region the other day.

Experts in Azerbaijan also acknowledge the fact that the planned railway projects mean diversification of regional routes, attraction of investments, creation of new jobs, economic development.

However, there is some concern about the adequacy of Armenia's actions, since Pashinyan's positions (so far the prime minister) are shaky, parliamentary elections are coming and there are no guarantees that Armenia will not return to revanchist actions, even to the detriment of commercial benefits.

“The pitfall of the idea of ​​a railway transport corridor from Azerbaijan to the NAR through Armenia is the unpredictability of the behavior of responsible persons in Armenia. The presence of a military-political factor creates a certain risk. We can only hope for a reasonable approach of Armenia and the desire of the Russian Federation to really implement those points of the Peace Declaration of November 9, 2020 signed by Aliyev, Putin and Pashinyan, which will open new and old roads,” expert Rufat Bayramov told ASTNA.

He recalled that Azerbaijan has already begun construction of the 84.6-kilometer Fizuli-Shusha highway (the project will take 2 years), an airport in Fizuli, and announced a plan to create an airport in the Kelbajar or Lachin regions.

The first 48 km of the Fizuli-Shusha road will consist of 6 lanes, and the second part of the road on a section of 48-84.6 km will consist of 4 lanes. It is also planned to branch off (on the 82^nd km of the Fizuli-Shusha highway) in the direction of the Lachin-Shusha-Khankendi highway.

In general, the Fizuli-Shusha highway, starting from the M6 ​​Hajigabul-Bahramtepe-Minjivan-Armenian state border, will pass through the liberated Fizuli, Khojavend, Khojaly and Shusha regions.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev laid its foundation on January 15, 2021.

According to the head of the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communications (CAERC) Vusal Gasimli, “using the transport capabilities of Azerbaijan in two directions - Gyumri-Nakhchivan-Meghri-Baku and Yerevan-Gazakh-Baku, Armenia can establish transport links with its strategic partners - Russia, which accounts for 25-30 percent of Armenia's trade turnover”.

Also, Armenia can enter the transport corridors created by Azerbaijan and Turkey, which actually gives access to the Caspian, Black and Mediterranean Seas.

Gasimli believes that the new link of Armenia will provide a new way of reaching Iran, the Gulf of Oman and up to the Indian Ocean.

“In fact, Azerbaijan is promoting greater integration of the Mediterranean and Caspian basins along the Great Silk Road and the North-South corridor. New transport opportunities will appear between Central Asia and Europe, Turkey and Russia, Iran and Europe, as well as between Turkey and Central Asia,” the head of CAERC sums up.

According to this center, the opening of communications in the region could increase Azerbaijan's exports by 1.2 billion manat, non-oil GDP by 2 percent, processing industry by 3 percent and mining industry by 2.7 percent. There are also great prospects for tourism and agriculture.

According to expert Rufat Bayramov, the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and maintenance of peace will improve the investment climate of the entire region.

“There is already progress on the part of foreign investors and international financial institutions. ADB, WB, EBRD may be interested,” Bayramov said.

According to him, in the territory of Azerbaijan, the safety of work will be ensured by sappers and other responsible persons, in the territory of Armenia the special bodies of the Russian Federation are the guarantor.

Let us remind that the system of railways in Armenia is under the control of the Russian Railways, and in Azerbaijan they rely on the assistance of the Russian Federation in the implementation of transport plans on the liberated lands.

“I think that the Russian Federation may be interested in a link through Azerbaijan, Armenia with access to Turkey. Russia and Turkey have strategic relations. Turkey recently sent a container train to the Russian Federation via the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway, which reached the Kaluga region, which can be regarded as an important step. The visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister in late January to the NAR with the aim of negotiations on unblocking regional communications also demonstrates a positive attitude. That is, the Russian Federation and Iran do not think that the road through Armenia to the NAR and Turkey competes with the BTK, with the North-South project, TRACECA. The more cargo, the richer the countries involved can become,” Bayramov said.

It is noteworthy that experts from Azerbaijan, Armenia and the Russian Federation held discussions on communications on January 30 and February 12, but there are no details.

Could this be indicative of tensions within the joint working group?

It is not excluded that offended Armenia is trying to obscure the negotiation process and the implementation of transport projects.

Opinions in Armenia

Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan on February 17 in Moscow will discuss the implementation of the points of the Peace Statement with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

But at the end of January, the same Ayvazyan stated that "Armenia does not believe that the results of Azerbaijan's aggression against Artsakh (his quote) can create a basis for long-term peace or be viewed as an opportunity for regional cooperation."

“Only a long-term peace that meets the interests of all parties, in which there are no winners or losers, can create real guarantees for promoting security, stability and development in the region,” Ayvazyan told his Iranian counterpart a couple of weeks ago.

Recently, the Armenian Ambassador to the Netherlands said that the EU should impose sanctions against aggressive Azerbaijan and the undemocratic Russian Federation (because of Navalny), which many political analysts saw as an attempt by Armenia to again get rid of the dominant role of Russia and call on the West for this.

Such a statement eloquently indicates a split in governance in Armenia, which casts doubt on the future of transport projects in the region.

Political analysts and officials in Armenia say that the peace documents signed on November 9 do not directly mention the Meghri transport corridor, which creates a field for political maneuver.

For example, the head of one of the Armenian transport companies, Gagik Aghajanyan, in a recent interview with EADaily noted the following: there are two options for connecting Azerbaijan with the NAR: 1) the use of the existing (after minor repairs) railway between Armenia and Azerbaijan through the northern regions of Armenia, which deepens further to the central parts of the country, and from there the railway line reaches Nakhchivan, 2) in fact, build a railway from scratch through the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh (Jabrail, Zangilan), as well as the Meghri region (bordering Iran) located in the south of Armenia to Nakhchivan.

According to the Armenian side, the first option is preferable, since it is less expensive and faster.

“If we talk about the Azerbaijani cargo going to Nakhichevan through Meghri, then this is a very distant prospect, because there is no 166 km of railway. On one of the route sections there is the Khudaferin power plant, which means that it must be bypassed through the mountains. In the Meghri region itself, 45 km of the road must be built from scratch, and in the NAR, 190 km from Ordubad to Sadarak must be restored. This is what we are offered, and this is expensive work worth $ 434 million,” the Armenian expert said.

In his opinion, the road that goes to Baku to Derbent will be enough for communication between the Russian Federation and Armenia. At the same time, only 500-600 meters will need to be restored in Armenia.

He believes that this road will also be suitable for communication with the NAR.

Aghajanyan casts doubt on Azerbaijan's desire to develop communications in the liberated regions on the basis that Azerbaijan rejects the idea of ​​restoring the railway in Armenia.

“Azerbaijan is more likely to present a political project aimed at keeping Armenia “overboard”. For 30 years of conflict, Azerbaijan has built a railway to enter Iran through Astara - Rasht. Baku has already bypassed Armenia from the east. There is also a railway connecting Georgia with Turkey: Kars - Akhalkalaki. That is, Georgia bypasses Armenia from the west. Thus, there are railway communications bypassing Armenia from the east, north and west. There remains one road (southern), during the construction of which Armenia, being in the central part of the region, will find itself in transport isolation. As soon as a railway is built connecting the southern regions of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, and then with Turkey, through the so-called Meghri corridor, Armenia will find itself in complete transport isolation. That is, with our help, they (Azerbaijan and Turkey) will actually use Armenia only for transit, and Armenia will have to bow to them if it wants to transport its cargo,” the Armenian expert explains his vision.

In his opinion, it is enough for Armenia to have access to the Georgian ports of the Black Sea, and communication with the Russian Federation goes through the territory of Georgia along Upper Lars.

“Yes, Russia is Armenia's first economic partner. But what does the structure of Armenia's economic ties with Russia consist of? These are precious metals, gas, and nuclear fuel for the Metsamor nuclear power plant in Armenia. These are very expensive goods that cannot be transported by rail. If we talk about agricultural products, then they are transported by road. Armenia has adapted to these routes and Georgia will remain our number 1 partner in terms of transit,” Aghajanyan is convinced.

Such opinions voiced in Armenia indicate that the Armenian side is not ready to accept new proposals for communications in the Karabakh region and has begun to use political manipulations in flirting with pro-Western Georgia and the EU.

Thus, the implementation of new transport initiatives may face a number of political problems, and commercial goals may be postponed indefinitely. -0—

Evgrashina Lada