Elections in Turkey will determine the priorities of domestic and foreign policy

The electoral campaign for the early presidential elections in Turkey, to be held on June 24, is coming to end. According to the new Constitution, adopted April 16, 2017, for the first time the head of state will be elected by direct vote. These elections in Turkey mean a transition to presidential rule, under which the head of the country will have broad powers. On the same day, elections to the Great National Assembly will be held.

Despite the sate of emergency in the country , the political freedoms in the country have not been restricted. In recent years very rapid and competitive election campaigns have taken place in the near and far regions. Although they do not openly talk about this, this competition is more ideological than personal. It is noteworthy that for the main participants the elections have great significance.

Many people believe, the ruling party managed to stay in power so long due to religious trends in state affairs. However, the concern of secular opposition related to the fate of Ataturk"s ideas is growing. So, these elections can be regarded as the most decisive in the political history of Turkey.

These elections will determine the priorities of Turkey's domestic and foreign policy, its position in regional and global politics, and the system of ideological, political and social relations within the country. All this is very important for a country that is now geographically also at the center of the most complex and highly controversial military and political conflicts taking place in the world.

In this regard, the tension will intensifyin the coming years, and will become a very important stage for Turkey. Despite the fact that the current foreign policy by Erdogan is satisfactory, it is still not devoid of risks, unstable and more likely to be influenced by external factors. There is also a lack of firmness and socio-economic stability in domestic policy. Here there are still contradictions that are intractable both from the national-ethnic, religious-ideological, and sociopolitical point of view.

The analysis of the situation shows that turnout of voters in elections on June 24 will reach the highest level in comparison with the results of all previous elections. In the current elections in Turkey and abroad, as a whole, 59,391,328 voters will take part. In the current campaign, all political organizations, public structures, civil society, entrepreneurs and media of the country are very active. There are candidates who enjoy the open support of their constituents. Since the will of voters plays a decisive role, millions of voters are involved in open propaganda and agitation. Particularly seriously increasing the activity of voters in the country of The campaign, conducted by presidential candidates in terms of successful and free elections have seriously increased the activity of electors in the country.

There are six candidates for the presidency in Turkey: current head of state RecepTayyip Erdogan (Justice and Development Party, AKP), MuharremInje (Republican People's Party, TPP), MeralAkhenker (Good Party, İYİ Parti), TemelKaramollaoglu (Happiness Party, IP), SalaheddinDemirtash(Democratic People's Party, HDP), DoguPerincek (Domestic Party, VP). In addition to S.Demirtash (HDP), for all other candidates the conditions are equal. Even though S.Demirtash is in prison, he is provided with the opportunity to address his constituents. All candidates openly propagandize against the main rival, the incumbent President Erdogan.

Independent polls show that the main struggle for the presidency will be between the current president of the country, RecepTayyip Erdogan (AKP) and Muharram Inje (CHP). Although it is still difficult to say with certainty which of them will win the election, there are still some assumptions.

Even if not to take into account the fact that R. Erdogan has been in power for a long time and as the head of state has the administrative resources to exert influence, one must admit that he has his own well-known stable electorate. All polls confirm that Erdogan is quite a strong rival, and the likelihood that he will again be elected president is very high. And the support given to him by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) further increases his chances of winning. Various polls show that he has the highest rating as a politician, and it is projected that he will receive 48-53% of the votes of voters across the country.

However, the election campaign conducted by Muharram Inge (CHP), a sufficientlyexperienced and mature candidate, showed that he too was an eloquent politician who could revitalize Turkish society. He relies on a stable political force and a stable electorate. In addition, approximately 25% of permanent voters, CHP can get support and parts of hesitant voters. According to polls, it is likely that M. Inge will receive 28-33% of the vote.

The study of the situation shows that both candidates enjoy strong support from both the people and the international community. Theoretically, one should not exclude the possibility that both candidates will go to the second round. Although the participation of the opposition in elections with numerous candidates is a good tactic in terms of the ability to criticize a candidate from power, however, this will lead to a division of the electorate among them. If the winner is not determined in the first round of elections, there is still a possibility in the second round against Erdogan a broad coalition will be formed.

The holding of parliamentary and presidential elections at the same time somewhat hampered the actions of the consolidated opposition againstthe authorities. However, despite the partial narrowing of the powers of the parliament, it continues to be the main political arena of the country. Just form the point of view of their political interests that the parties preferred to participate in the elections separately.

A detailed examination of the parliamentary elections shows that obtaining great advantages by the ruling AKP, similar to the previous ones, is unrealistic. Thus, even if R.Erdogan is elected a president, then it will be much more difficult to get the decisive majority in the parliament. But this is very important from the standpoint of preserving democratic traditions in Turkish society.

Though it is impossible to exclude the possibility of certain protests in the country after the elections, the probability of large-scale instability is low. In Turkey, there are deep historical roots, traditions and legal bases of relations between the state and citizens. And our country is interested in the presence in of a stable and strong Turkey in the region.