Erdogan's "red line"

Usually, when the talk is about the red line, it is understood that it cannot be crossed, because it can cause a symmetrical response. To substantiate such an claime, he informed Putin about 2 thousand terrorists of the banned Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), transported by Armenia to Azerbaijan for the war over Karabakh.

“According to the confirmed data of the intelligence services, 2,000 PKK terrorists are fighting on the side of Armenia in the occupied Karabakh. They are paid $ 600 each and are based in Shusha," Erdogan told Putin.

These two messages are very important pivotal facts for the exchange of views by the interlocutors located at a distance of more than 2 thousand km from each other, connected by government ties that run through a hot spot in the South Caucasus.

It should be noted that the information about this conversation between the presidents, submitted from Moscow and Ankara, differs, the first by its diplomacy, where there is no hint of red lines, but there are claims about Syrian terrorists, and the second is a dispatch, transmitted in plain text. Erdogan, conveying the essence of the conversation at a meeting in the parliamentary faction of the ruling Justice and Development Party of Turkey, left a passage for Putin to get out of the situation: "President Putin admitted that he did not know about the facts transmitted to him," Erdogan noted.

Red line. Recent events and information coming from Yerevan, Moscow and Baku suggest that the red line should be understood as the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and especially that part of it where the Azerbaijani army in the lowlands between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh is moving forward, freeing inch by inch the regions occupied 27 years ago - Jabrayil, Zangelan, Gubadly, Lachin.

As in 1992-1993 (then successfully), the Armenians can attack the Azerbaijani troops from two sides - the main forces from the territory of Armenia, and the auxiliary ones from the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is evidenced by the following facts. The day before, a large military fist of the Armenian Armed Forces began to gather at the border with the involvement of all types of troops. The so-called Russian border guards also appeared here, demonstratively hoisting the Russian tricolor, which was never seen here even during the Russian autocracy. Armenian official circles began to make statements about the shelling of Armenian border posts by Azerbaijan, about the threat of genocide against the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Finally, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinin, violating military secrecy, made a loud statement on October 27 that very soon the Armenian army would return all the lands liberated by Azerbaijan to every centimeter. "The people of Artsakh, the Armenian people, all the Armenians will mercilessly fight for every tree, every stone, every centimeter and every millimeter, and an accurate counterstrike delivered at the right moment will have the effect of a crushing defeat of the enemy," the Armenian Prime Minister said. As mentioned above, the Azerbaijani army liberated the following regions: Jabrayil, Zangelan, Gubadly and partly Lachin.

Terrorist justification. The Armenian-French-Russian propaganda actively exaggerated information about Syrian terrorists fighting in Karabakh on the side of Azerbaijan. The tone was set by Prime Minister Pashinyan, French President Macron, and the head of Russia's foreign intelligence service Naryshkin.

Kremlin propagandists in the person of Konstantin Zatulin, Vitaly Tretyakov, Pyotr Tolstoy and others actively created an informational justification for the introduction of Russian peacekeeping troops into the territory of Azerbaijan without the consent of Baku, justifying this by the presence of a terrorist threat against Russia and the protection of Armenians. In fact, this meant the return of Russian troops to Azerbaijan after a 27-year to dictate conditions to Azerbaijan in the interests of the Armenians.

This part of grounding the invasion of parts of the Russian military base in Gyumri from the territory of Armenia into Karabakh; and  there are no other troops, except for a limited border contingent, was beaten by Erdogan's argument about 2,000 PKK terrorists, which Russia also recognizes as a terrorist organization. That is, Erdogan made it clear that in the event of any invasion of the territory of Azerbaijan under the pretext of fighting terrorism, Turkey will enter the battle with the same symmetric justifications.

On October 26, in an address to the nation, President Aliyev said that Turkish F-16s are in Azerbaijan, but they have not yet taken off, and will be used in case of external aggression. This can be regarded as an allegorical remark behind which is the power of the Turkish army. From the words of Prime Minister Pashinyan is becomes clear what kind of upcoming aggression Aliyev was informed about. Aliyev mentioned the sayings of the Armenian leader about centimeters, retorting that Armenia would no longer be able to occupy any centimeters.

Ornate Iran. Another indirect evidence of the impending offensive of Armenia against Azerbaijan are the gestures of the Iranian side: the beginning of the exercises of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on the border with Azerbaijan, the announcement of the creation of a security zone on the border territory of Azerbaijan in the event of Armenian-Azerbaijani military operations in this area. Finally, the shuttle peacekeeping visit of Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi by some kind of Tehran's peace plan. Our short-lived history teaches that such mediation efforts ended in failure. In February 1992, Foreign Minister Vilayeti arrived in the region with such intention, and immediately the Khojaly genocide took place. On May 8 of the same year, in Tehran, he signed an armistice agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and immediately Shusha and then Lachin were occupied. Arakchi arrived in the region at the very moment when Pashinyan spoke about centimeters, but he was on the way when Erdogan drew a red line for the impending Armenian offensive.