In the middle East after Israel's peace agreements with the UAE and Bahrain

On September 14, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli delegation left for Washington to attend a ceremony of signing accords on normalization of relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. In his Twitter post the Prime Minister wrote «On the path to peace-building». Also, he described his Washington visit as «a historical mission» and «a new  peace era we have dreamt of for 25 years» (1).  It must be acknowledged that this talking point has been played up in the current  month by the  mass media, the fact is self-explanatory. How the Israeli (and more) press is handling this fact is quite a different story.

It will suffice to mention that an isrageo.com report says that many Israeli diplomats, deputies, officials and journalists are raving about rapprochement with the UAE to promise «the glittering future». However, it is as well to remember that the UAE rapprochement is characterized by «tactic, propaganda-public opinion success politically expedient for Trump and Netanyahu only, in the first turn». It is worth noting that an analogous «success» in this context was attained at proper time with Mauritania, Turkey and even Iran; however, later on, «all came full circle», so the imaginary success turned into a real failure». This notwithstanding, Israel risks falling into the same trap: in case of regime change in the UAE relations with this state might aggravate, and in case of «inevitable in future clashes with Hamas the ruler of the UAE would not side with us even despite his personal hatred of Hamas!». In this case the UAE would appeal to the parties to exercise restraint» and incessantly intimidate into severance of diplomatic relations «just as Jordan does».

There is no getting away from the fact that «the population of Egypt and Jordan - we have long maintained diplomatic relations with – are still loathing us intensely. So we don’t expect true and empyrean lave of the UAE residents». It follows from the above that the rapprochement with the UAE is the last «imaginary victory, an imitation of real victory». In the meanwhile, «aborted return of Judea and Samaria territories under Israeli jurisdiction might be a genuine strategic breakthrough with future prospects. In light of this, Israel would tighten its security and make us stronger and confident in our claims to Holy Land». Note that a victory of this sort «would not be influenced by a political situation; by regime change in the UAE; by Israel Defense Forces operations or elections in the United States and Israel»(2).

As for Judaea and Samaria’s settlement plans, it should be added that on September 6, 2020 the Israeli Defense Minister, Benny Ganz asked Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu to convene a civil administration planning committee and approve the construction of new houses in Judaea and Samaria (5000 dwelling units). The fact that the committee failed to hold its meetings for the last six months led to the actual construction freeze (3).

Another Israeli source points out that the normalization of relations with the UAE forced Israel to make certain concessions, in the first turn, deliveries of the newest American weapons due to what the parties had to discuss variants of counter claims to Washington. One of these claims is the production and transfer of new armament systems to the Israel Defense Forces within the framework of military aid one year early of the scheduled date together with payment grace period. In this regard the Israeli proposal counts on military establishment’s understanding of inevitable deal between the United States and the UAE, including the sale of fighters F-35 and other first-rate armaments. True, the Trump administration guaranteed the security of US-backed Israeli army’s qualitative superiority. Note that formally Abu-Dhabi’ arms deliveries have not relation to the normalization of relations between the emirates and Israel. This notwithstanding, three main components of the American initiative remain closely related, including Israeli annexation delay in Judaea and Samaria; an arm sale deal and normalization of relations with the

United Arab Emirates. As previously stated, the concept implementation is of particular importance for President Trump as a part of his election campaign (4).

In all probability, the point is about D. Trump’s intention to enlist the support of American Jews at the forthcoming November US Presidential election.

At the same time the Israeli mass media reported that an official representative of the UAE Royal Household addressed a cooperation  proposal  to owner and president of «Beytar» (Jerusalem) club Moshe Hogeg. The representative announced that he was not going to sell «Beytar» emphasizing that he intended to hold talks in an effort to seriously change economic and sporting conditions of the club.

Of interest is the fact that Abu-Dhabi investors are interested in financing the Jerusalem club only even in spite of the fact that «soccer fans of this club introducing themselves as "La Familia" are staunch opponents of Arab players to play for the club(5).

What important to notice is that some mass media are engaged in forecasting prospects of economic cooperation between the UAE and Israel. An emphasis is laid on the fact that in an attempt to diversify their economy and reduce dependence upon oil revenues the UAE is eager to develop the tourist industry. According to estimates, the country is minded to earn $ 85 billion from tourism by 2027. When adjusted for «Israelis’ love of travelling abroad, tourists are, theoretically though, primary advantage for the Emirates. In turn, the Emirates are capable of supplying Israel with their own tourists, both commercial and religious». Here, «Israel maintains the lead», for «Emirates’ travelers are easily motivated to revisit Moslem holy places in Israel»(6).

Against the background of Saudi Arabia a number of sources are quoting the CNN Arab version as saying that imam of the main (Al Masjid al-Haram) Sacred Mosque in Mecca and head of the General Presidium of the Two Sacred Mosques Abdurrahman As-Sudays stressed at the last Juma prayer that the destiny of the Palestinian people and the status of Al-Aqsa Mosque in Israel remain to be crucial for Moslems. At the same time he stressed the necessity of maintaining good relations with neighbors as saying that Prophet Mohammad (Let Allah bless Him) kept good terms with Jews. Many observers qualified this prayer as «an overture» to public opinion’s preparation to the normalization of relations between the Arab states of the Gulf and Israel (7).

It should be remembered that Israeli mass media are calling attention to the fact that during a meeting with US President Donald Trump King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdul-Aziz voiced his support to the Arab peace initiative that provided the creation of a Palestinian state as a basis for the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: «We are striving for long-term and just settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and ultimately the peace-making. Kingdom’s main efforts are focused on reaching this objective». The Israeli mass media infer that «monarch has made it plain that he was not ready to follow the path taken by the United Arab Emirates and attain an agreement on normalization of relations between the two parties. In spite of the fact that the two states are maintaining close informal ties, Salman is ready to conclude a formal agreement only after the settlement of the Palestinian conflict»(8).

Such are circumstances that co-occurred B/ Netanyahu’s visit to Washington. The Israeli Prime Minister emphasized that advanced accords with the UAE and Bahrain (he described them as historical mission), «will earn us billions of dollars which is of high praise especially in terms of coronavirus epidemic» (9).

It has to be kept in mind that experts, recognizing the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two Arab states and Israel as a landmark event, pointed out that «the signing ceremony of the document - which is neither agreement with the UAE nor Bahrain (work over it is still in progress) attended by parties’ Foreign Ministers only» - is rather disputable «historical mission». Further complicating the case is «complete divorcement from the Israeli reality and inopportuneness of this «historical mission» at a moment «where Israeli citizens are engaged in feverishly providing themselves with food in terms of 3-week quarantine at Rosh ha-Shan, Yom Kippur and Sukkot (Jewish feasts – author’s note) while businessmen are concerned about prospects of their business activity» upon quarantine completion (10). The question is about a decision of the Israeli coronavirus department on sanctioning an enhanced quarantine since 13 September for a term of three weeks.

To sum up, even a peek into pages of the Israeli press reveals a great skepticism over prospects of Israel’s rapprochement with some Arab regimes. A key determinant in the distribution of political forces might be results of the Presidential election in the USA. For the meantime, Israeli mass media qualified Oman as a current Arab state willing to join Bahrain and the UAE and sign peace accords with Israel (11).

Teymur Atayev

References

1. Netanyahu left for Washington to sign an agreement with the UAE and Bahrain.

https://detaly.co.il/netaniyagu-vyletel-v-vashington-dlya-podpisaniya-soglasheniya-s-oae-i-bahrejnom/

2.Leonid Berkovich. A suite for general’s wife Popova: a Near Eastern variant

http://www.isrageo.com/2020/08/30/garni375/

3. Ganz puts forward the construction of 5000 houses in Judaea and Samaria.

https://mignews.com/news/politic/070920_84318_67670.html

4. Nahum Barnea. F-35 fighters in exchange for peace: and what will Israel obtain instead?https://www.vesty.co.il/main/article/Sk6FzkfEP

5.UAE sheikhs intend to invest in… Israeli football.

https://detaly.co.il/shejhi-iz-oae-namereny-sotrudnichat-s-ierusalimskim-fk-bejtar/

6. Igor Yudkevich. What can Israel and the UAE sell to each other?

https://regnum.ru/news/economy/3058520.html

7. «An overture to normalization»: The sermon was preached by Imam of Mecca mosque on good fellowship to Jews http://orientalexpress.info/news/makkajew

8. King Salman: "Normalization of relations with Israel will take place following the Palestinian conflict settlement only"..https://www.newsru.co.il/mideast/07sep2020/saud_202.html

9. Netanyahu left for Washington to sign an agreement with the UAE and Bahrain

https://detaly.co.il/netaniyagu-vyletel-v-vashington-dlya-podpisaniya-soglasheniya-s-oae-i-bahrejnom/

10.Anshel Pfeffer: Netanyahu with Trump; we are with «crown»

https://detaly.co.il/netaniyagu-s-trampom-my-s-koronoj/

11. Oman comes next to sign an agreement with Israel – a report

https://mignews.com/news/USACANADA/140920_100827_14613.html