Is Wagner the only concern?

We have seen that none of the warring parties in Libya risked a military operation against Sirte and Jufra. Although President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's statements and the full readiness of the army have raised the possibility that Egypt will enter Libya, no practical steps have been taken from Cairo.

Tensions erupted first between France and Turkey (over military intervention in Libya) and then between Turkey and Greece (over energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean). All three are members of NATO, and NATO member Greece has sought to squeeze Turkey into the sea by signing an agreement with Egypt, where a military dictatorship is in power today. Just as Turkey did not step back in Libya or in the Eastern Mediterranean, in late July and early August, it tried to demonstrate its strength by holding joint military exercises with Azerbaijan in the opposite position.

The United Arab Emirates, which has openly supported forces fighting the UN-recognized Fayez al-Saraj government in Libya, has also taken advantage of the stalemate in Libya to normalize relations with Israel by signing an infrastructure agreement earlier this year.

Surprisingly, Moscow did not raise its voice in these processes, which have been going on for about three months. Although Moscow has said it can be a "mediator" by offering "peace" after the Tripoli government gained a military advantage over Khalifa Haftar, it is not yet possible to say whether the "peace" process has begun.

In this atmosphere, which seems chaotic in all respects, press secretary of the President, İbrahim Kalın, who gave a statement that the Turkish and Russian presidents discussed the situation in Syria and Libya over the phone, said that they did not want to face any country in Libya, adding that Turkey’s main concern was that Russia kept an armed group like Wagner there and that the United Arab Emirates sent mercenaries there from countries such as Niger, Chad, and Sudan to support Haftar. Press secretary Kalın’s statement is reminiscent of President Erdoğan’s words eight months ago: The Turkish president, who strengthened his position by signing a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Prime Minister of the methodist administration in Tripoli, Fayez al-Saraj, on November 26, 2019, in Istanbul, asked a month later, "What is the Wagner group doing in Libya?"

With the killing of 57 Turkish soldiers by Russia in the Idlib region on February 27 (whether Wagner or official military forces did it), the process in Syria seemed to stop, and after a while, it became clear that both Turkey and Russia were sending troops to Libya. In recent weeks, there have been reports that the Syrian state army has resumed large-scale attacks in the Idlib region, allegedly in the wake of Turkish-Russian cooperation.

In other words, after the Idlib tragedy on February 27, when Turkish-Russian cooperation in Idlib was completely formal, what the press secretary Kalın said is discussed? If Turkey is so concerned about the actions of the Russian-backed Syrian army in Idlib and the Wagner group in Libya, what is the style and tone of the two presidents' telephone conversations? If the issues of concern to Turkey are so openly announced by the press secretary of the President, how will peace be achieved in the two regions where both countries exist? What is the sign of temporary calm in both regions: peace or preparation for new large-scale military operations? Is Russia content with Wagner's presence in Libya, or does it have or will it have official military forces in the region? Or will it be enough for the official Egyptian army to intervene in the process, except for other mercenaries who are fighting against the official Tripoli government with the money of the United Arab Emirates? What will be the fate of so much investment in Haftar made by France and Italy, especially by Russia?

If Kalın is worried about Wagner in the region, like "the man who acted very cautiously because of what happened", we wonder what Russia will do there: what will it do, what?

Mayis Alizade