June 24 Elections - Forecasts

Many different versions and assumptions are put forward in turkey on the eve of the extraordinary presidential and parliamentary elections. As a man who more or less is familiar with Turkey, I followed the pre-election processes, I want to share my own eyes and forecasts.

The current elections differ from the previous ones by the fact that they are held in the conditions of the state of emergency which is in force in the country for the last two years. It is true thatthis situation does not bother most of the society, since the state of emergency was introduced after the attempted coup d'état, which did not take place just thanks to the support of the community and is provided for the well-known group. However, in the context of all attributes of democratic elections, just the existence of this regime casts a shadow over the legitimacy of elections.

It isnoteworthy that despite all the negative aspects of the pre-election atmosphere in Turkey, the campaign is competitive, the opposition has both broad access to its electorate and the ability to openly criticize the government in various meetings. Of course, it is difficult to talk about the complete freedom of the media, especially electronic media. However, there is a certain lumen. In a word, political actors, including the authorities, try to win the favor of the public in elections, and this is of decisive importance. There are no open alternative ways attempts to stay in power or usurp it. And there is no question of mistrust of the society (as we do) for the institution of elections. That is, everyone iseagerly waiting forthe result of ballots.

What are the chances of election participants? When analyzing the results of the two parliamentary elections held several years ago (in June and November 2015), it can be seen that in June 2015, the AKP (Justice and Development Party) received 41% of the vote. As a result of the short-term government crisis, 9% of the votes of the MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) and HDP (Democratic People's Party) joined AKP in the new, early November elections. But these were the votes of not the voters of the AKP itself,but the temporary votes of the MHP (5%) electorate and HDP (3%) protesting against them. That is, today some of these votes will definitely go to Meral Akshener (İYİ Parti - Good Party). Voices of AKP will again amount to approximately 40%.

Because nothing that would seriously differ from the political conjuncture of 2015 did not happen.

Despite there was some lag in the economy and the stock exchange, it was not so menacing to affect the votes of the voters. However, it is a fact that the main factor influencing the votes of the voters of Turkey is the state of the economy. Thus, the main reason for Erdogan's stay in power for 16 years is thatunlike previous authorities, he has achieved a stable and unambiguous inflation. And the change in these factors can directly affect the numberhis voters.

If to take into account that in the last two elections, the CHP (Republican People's Party) received 25% and 25.3% of the votes, respectively, it can be assumed that 25-26% of the votes will be returned to the Electoral list headed by K. Kylichdaroglu. It is expected that the votes of İYİ Parti, created by M. Akshener, and HDP, representing Kurdish nationalists, will total 10-11%.

With the exception of HDP, it is expected if other parties participate in the elections as the two main electoral unions, then overcoming the electoral barrier, MHP and SP (Happiness Party) will be represented in the parliament by approximately 10% of voters.

In case if all parties went to the elections separately and the AKP gained 40-42% of the vote, it would undoubtedly receive more than half of the seats in the Parliament, which consists of 600 deputies. But now the situation is different, and when HDP complies with the norm, and İYİ Parti, MHP and SP, as a union, overcome the barrier, the 600 seats will be divided among many parties and the number of AKP deputies will not reach 301, that is more than half of all members Parliament.

As a result, AKPwill have to negotiate with other parties in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, especially with the MHP and the BBP (Great Unity Party).

As for the candidates for the presidency, the situation is different here than in the situation with the other parties. Erdogan will gain more votes than AKP votes, as not only members of his party members, but also by the MHPmembers support him. Recent public opinion polls show that Erdogan can get about 50% of the vote and that there is a good chance of holding the 2nd round. For example, according to forecasts released by the Gezici groupthree days ago, Erdogan will gain 48% of the vote. This group in its forecasts for the 2015 election called the number of AKP votes by 1.8% less than the party scored. The Optimar research groupon the eve of the November elections in 2015 predicted AKP by 0.5% more than it received. And according to the assumptions of the same group, three days ago, for R. Erdogan will vote 51.6% of voters. If to take into account its error of 1%, then it turns out that R. Erdogan will overcome the 50% barrier with a scant advantage.

Candidate for the post of president from the CHP (Republican People's Party) Muharrem Ince held his election campaign better than K. Kylichdaroglu,and is expected to gain about 28% of the vote, which is by approximately 3% more than the traditionally received from CHP. These assumptions are also made on the basis of research and surveys.

For example, in its calculations before the elections in June 2015, Gezici groupmade a mistake of 3% in favor of CHP, which in the elections received 25% of the vote, but the forecast was 28%. In the 17 June study the same company named the probable indicator of M. Ince in 29.1% of the vote, and taking into account its previous error of 3%, it can be assumed that M. Ince will receive 27-28% of the vote.

Another company - Optimar in the elections in November 2015, predicted the number of CHP votes by 0.6% less than it scored in the elections. The June 20, 2018 study of this company states that

M. Ince can gain 28% of the vote, and with consideration of the previous margin of error of 0.6%, it is likely that the votes of M. Ince will be 28-29% of their total number.

In the works of these two companies, which used to make forecasts, it was pointed out that M. Akshener, who waspredicted great success, lost many votes during the campaign and now can collect 10-11% of the vote. If at the nomination of M. Akshener 20% of votes were predicted to her, now this figure, in comparison with the index of the same Mince, is much lower. However, her participation in the elections still creates, a small risk for the victory of Erdogan in the first round.

Due to the fact that the votes of the other three candidates for the presidency are secondary, no serious changes are expected regarding them. HDP candidate S. Demirtas will again receive 10% Kurdish votes, Dogu Perincek - traditional about 1% of the vote, and SP candidate T. Karamollaoglu - more traditional votes of this party, but not more than 3%.

Thus, with a high degree of probability it can be argued that in the presidential elections on June 24 this year their fate will be clear in the first round, but if this does not happen, then, without any doubt, Erdogan will win in the second round.

The balance of forces in the elections suggests that in the next five years Erdogan, even if he wants, should not be too steep and should avoid authoritarian bias. If he is elected President, his party will not have a majority in Parliament, although the latter will cease to be as functional as he was in the past. This will require Erdogan conductinga coordinated policy.