Karabakh: between Moscow and Ankara

By October 30, the successes of the Azerbaijani army within the framework of the liberation of the territories occupied by Armenia, launched on September 27, destroyed the Minsk negotiation process on the principles: seven regions in exchange for the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh from Baku.

By this date, Azerbaijan was progressively conquering (and is conquering now) its territories, bleeding the Armenian army.

All panic attempts by Armenia to enlist the support of Russia and the West, to drag them into the conflict, by this time failed. The final point on this issue was put by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Azerbaijan insists on its right to return seven regions that are not related to the ethnic conflict, and further deal with the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh. Each has its own truth. There are no simple solutions, because the knot is very difficult to tie, he noted at the plenary session of the VTB Capital investment forum "Russia is calling!" on October 29.

It was Putin's public response to a letter of help from desperate Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan and his electorate categorically reject the precondition for peace by Ilham Aliyev, who requires the unconditional withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces from Karabakh.

The first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who was wise by the experience of the Karabakh conflict, regarded Putin's statement as an invitation to consider Aliyev's demands.

A day later, on November 1, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu arrived in Baku on a short-term visit and had a conversation with President Ilham Aliyev at his country residence. Information about the meeting was sparse, but Aliyev's brief public statement about his firm position showed his displeasure with Yerevan.

The next day, on November 2, former Prime Minister Binali Ildrim, close to Erdogan, arrived to meet with Aliyev. The meeting was also held in an atmosphere of semi-secrecy.

Finally, President Putin alternately speaks “in detail” with Pashinyan ( November 1) and Aliyev ( November2) about the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The Kremlin press service issued a message on November 2 at 22.20, which suggests that the conversation took place after Aliyev's meeting with Erdogan's personal envoy.

This may mean that Turkey and Russia, as the main moderators of the current phase of the conflict, have received a proposal from Yerevan for Aliyev.

On November 3, Aliyev tweeted the following: “We believe that a military solution to the conflict should move to the political plane, and we are ready for this. I hope that Armenia’s bitter defeat will force them to think seriously and come to this decision. But we see the opposite. "

In this context, it is clear that Aliyev no longer insists, but believes that the conflict should move from the military to a political track. However, the second part of his statement introduces dissonance.

Most likely, Pashinyan introduced this dissonance into the efforts to bring Armenia out of the military-political stupor. This idea is suggested by Pashinyan's statement on Facebook regarding the terrorist attack in Vienna, made before Aliyev's tweet: “By the way, Nagorno-Karabakh is the anti-terrorist front of this war, and here, without exaggeration, the fate of civilization is being decided. Civilization must win, Vienna! "

Thus, the Armenian prime minister drew a line under the possible shuttle mediation of Turkey and Russia: the war will continue until the last soldier.