Kremlin remains a leading player in the OSCE Minsk Group

The previous meeting of the co-chairs with the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2021. But this was not a joint meeting between the sovereign troika and the Caucasian two. At the meetings in the format of MG-Azerbaijan and MG-Armenia, an exchange of views took place on the promotion of the process of normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, taking into account the new realities that have developed in the region.

Over the past period, normalization has not occurred. We can only testify to the complication of the situation, both in the internal political agenda of the two countries, and on the line of contact on the border of the two countries and in the regional political field. In Armenian society, Pashinyan's political opponents are stepping up revanchist rhetoric in order to regain control over Karabakh, while Aliyev is busy reconstructing the liberated territories without looking back at the negotiation process. For him, there is no problem of status, which is so actively discussed in Yerevan.

Although the parties to the conflict talk about their commitment to the Minsk process and mediation, they, as before, when Armenia controlled 20% of the territory of Azerbaijan, are still not ready for compromises, now for new reasons. Having played the war, Armenia seeks to preserve the status quo of the unresolved Karabakh problem so as not to make concessions to Azerbaijan, which has risen to the pedestal of the winner. In turn, Azerbaijan is now seeking to consolidate the status quo of the victor with an eye on a long siege of the defeated, in order to persuade him to the same unconditional long-term peace as happened in the case of the short-term war in 2020.

Paradoxically, Armenia, limited in relations with the outside world, which is more than Azerbaijan interested in unblocking communications, continues to adhere to a policy of self-isolation in order to implement the long-standing idea of ​​severing Karabakh, although the idea itself has already devalued significantly, as can be seen from the exodus of the population from this country that has intensified from hopelessness. ...

The very course of the negotiations in Paris and the meager diplomatically announced messages to the world community on the results of the negotiations indicate that Armenia and Azerbaijan are far from accelerating the peace process as never before. The preceding rhetoric in both countries was not deceiving.

The problem also is the fact that the co-chairs themselves, torn apart by contradictions on a wider range of issues, including Karabakh, are hardly ready for compromises more than the Foreign Ministries of Azerbaijan and Armenia. The disposition of the co-chairs in relation to the conflict, which developed during last year's war, remains. Russia, due to its military presence in Karabakh and mediation in the framework of the statement dated November 9-10, 2020, remains the main mediator of the conflict. And in a meeting in Paris, she confirmed that no one is against the prevailing realities after September 27, 2020, when the Azerbaijani army, having seized the strategic initiative and paraphrasing Clausewitz's quote, turned the war into a continuation of the political process with the results that Baku had cherished for so long at the Minsk talks. ...

In connection with these conclusions, we can predict further leading mediation of Moscow in the Karabakh settlement. One of the elements of this could be the postponed meeting of Aliyev-Pashinyan by the end of the year. The meeting of the Foreign Ministries of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Paris can be considered the forerunner of the Azerbaijani-Armenian summit within the walls of the Kremlin. Paris made a pass towards Moscow.