Non-professional, Superficial and Primitive Programs

A few days ago, a meeting was held at the Ministry of Agriculture on the topic "Results of the development of animal husbandry in the Republic of Azerbaijan in 2020 and forthcoming tasks in 2021." It was noted at the event that the work done in recent years in connection with the instructions of the Head of State regarding the implementation of the "state programs for the development of animal husbandry and the rational use of pasture lands in the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2019-2023” bore fruit.

Nothing is said about what work has been done. As an example, it was noted that “as a result of the measures implemented in 2020, compared to 2019, an increase in livestock production was recorded by 3.1 percent. Last year, production of meat in live weight increased by 3.1 percent, milk - by 1.9 percent, eggs - by 4.3 percent, wool - by 0.2 percent." It should be noted that the State Statistics Committee (SCS) has been announcing an increase in livestock production every year for many years. For example, before the adoption of the "state program", the growth of milk production in 2014 compared to 2013 was 3.7 percent, and in 2016 compared to 2017 it was 4.4 percent, that is, 2.3 times more than in 2020.

In addition, in 2017 compared to the previous year, the growth in meat production by 3.2% and eggs by 6.5% was higher than in 2020. I regret to note that the Minister of Agriculture, instead of describing the real situation at the meeting, disclosing existing problems and directing the discussion towards solving these problems, states that “the work done has borne fruit,” thus hiding the existing problems in this area. Growth indicators that are not considered serious are presented by the Minister as achievements. In reality, the situation in this area is not at all happy.

As can be seen from the information provided by the State Statistics Committee (Table 1), if in 2018 compared to 2017, the import of milk and dairy products decreased by 14 thousand tons, then after the adoption of the state program in 2019 compared to 2018, the import of milk and dairy products increased by 61 thousand tons. In 2020, imports of milk in physical weight increased by 7% and butter in physical weight by 19.7%. Such an increase in imports of dairy products casts doubt on the figures announced by the Minister of Agriculture regarding milk production.

Table 1. Stocks and use of milk and dairy products (thousand tons). Source - SCS 

After the adoption of the "State program for the development of animal husbandry and rational use of arable land in the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2019-2023" in 2019, compared to 2018, the increase in butter production was only 435 tons, in the same year, imports of goods of the same name increased by 1917 tons (Table 2). that in 2020, the import of butter and other dairy fats amounted to 16 thousand 806 tons compared to 2019. This is 4 thousand 691 tons, that is, 38.7 percent more than before the adoption of the state program.

Table 2. Imports of butter and other dairy oils and paste (tons). Source - SCS

For a long time, there has been an increase in meat production. It must be said that the growth rate of meat imports over the past 4 years remains higher than the growth rate of production of this product. So, if from 2015 to 2019 the import of meat increased by 54 thousand 767 tons, that is, more than 3 times, then meat production increased by 37 thousand 106 tons, that is, by 12.4% (Table 3). It should also be noted that, despite the fact that meat imports in 2020 decreased in physical weight by 14.7%, live cattle imported into the country mainly for slaughter increased in value terms by 14.3%, and finished products from meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates - by 15%. This means that in 2020, meat imports increased in physical weight.

Table 3. Stocks and use of all types of meat and meat products (thousand tons). Source - SCS

The State Program for the Development of Livestock Breeding and Rational Use of Arable and Pasture Lands in the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2019-2023" sets goals. Thus, it is envisaged that "as a result of the implementation of the state program, the volume of meat production in 2023 will reach 354 thousand tons, the level self-sufficiency in meat products - 92.5%. The total meat production in 10 years will grow by 16.2% compared to 2017 and will reach 368 thousand tons (including chicken meat). This is the goal! The state program for the development of animal husbandry for 2019-2023, adopted by the Ministry of Agriculture, provides that by 2029 the increase in meat production compared to 2017 will be 52 thousand tons and will be brought to 368 thousand tons. That is, according to the compilers of the program, the annual growth in meat production will be 5.2 thousand tons.

For comparison, it should be noted that from 2010 to 2015, that is, over 5 years, the growth in meat production amounted to 53,716 tons. This means that on average, meat production increased by 10,743 tons per year. Look! If before the adoption of the program for the development of animal husbandry, the annual increase in meat production was 10.7 thousand tons, then the adopted state program envisages an annual increase in meat production to an average of 5.2 thousand tons (2 times less). Then what was the need to prepare this state program ?! In addition, in order to achieve the intended goals, it is planned to create livestock farms for large and small ruminants at the expense of public funds, purchase and import cattle and small ruminants into the country.

The program also sets a goal to bring total milk production to 2.48 million tonnes by 2023. It should be noted that in 2019, 60 thousand tons of milk was consumed more than it was planned for 2023 (2.54 million tons). It's a paradox, isn't it? As the goal of the state program in 2023, it is planned to receive less products than the current consumption of milk.

In addition, 2.48 million tons of milk, which is planned to be obtained by 2023, will account for about 55% of the population's needs in accordance with the norm set by the World Health Organization. And the developers of the program believe that with the production of 2.48 million tons of milk, the level of self-sufficiency will increase to 98.6%. The program even notes that from 2024 the country will receive export opportunities, fully providing itself with milk and dairy products. The question is, how will a country get export opportunities if it can only meet half of its milk and dairy needs?

The program notes: "Along with changes in the breed composition of animals, the country will see a significant increase in milk production. Goals such as increasing meat and milk production and increasing self-sufficiency should be achieved without significantly increasing the demand for feed."

In the "Strategic roadmap for the production and processing of agricultural products in the Republic of Azerbaijan", approved back in 2016, it is noted that in order to scientifically carry out selection and breeding work in livestock farms and improve the breed composition of livestock breeding at the expense of the state budget, the import of highly productive breeding animals from foreign countries and the work on artificial insemination of animals is expanding.

The action plan of the Strategic Road Map envisaged in 2017-2018, through the intensive farming model, a reduction in the number of cattle by 10 percent, an increase in milk productivity by 50 percent, an increase in meat production by 20 percent, milk by 30 percent. The Ministry of Agriculture and local executive authorities are indicated as the bodies responsible for the implementation of the measures.

According to the measures envisaged in the sector of production and processing of agricultural products, the task has been set by 2020 (compared to 2015) to increase the production of meat in animal husbandry by 20 percent, milk - by 30 percent.

As stipulated in the Strategic Roadmap, by 2020 (compared to 2015) the production of meat in carcass weight should have increased by 20 percent (59.7 thousand tons) and amounted to 358.3 thousand tons. to note that the goal set in the roadmap for 2020 for meat production was not achieved, although it was not so ambitious.

So, according to the data provided by the State Statistics Committee, in 2020, 591.1 thousand tons in live weight (in slaughter weight - 346.3 thousand tons - VM) of meat was produced.

The Strategic Roadmap called for an increase in milk production by up to 30 percent by 2020 (compared to 2015). This means that compared to 2015, milk production in 2020 should have increased by 577.3 thousand tons and amounted to 2 million 501 thousand tons. However, according to information provided by the State Statistics Committee, in 2020, 2,192.5 thousand tons of milk were produced. And this is 309 thousand tons less than the production indicator provided for in the "Strategic Roadmap" for 2020. I would also like to remind you that if the "state program for the reliable provision of the population of the Republic of Azerbaijan with food for 2008-2015" envisaged increasing milk production in 2015 to 2.4 million tons, but in 2015, only 1.9 million tons of milk. Despite the fact that a lot of time has passed, so far not so great goals have been achieved.

Thus, despite the fact that the government of Azerbaijan has adopted several programs for the development of animal husbandry for a long time, there are still no results. And the lack of a result is an unprofessional, primitive and superficial preparation of the adopted documents. I believe that the government should create a working group of specialists in this area and use the services of professionals in the development of government programs.

Vahid Magerramov