Pakistani-Azerbaijani relations in the Afghan rift

Public statements by President Aliyev and General Bajwa indicate that the parties are preparing for a new stage in relations. Aliyev praised Pakistan's support for Azerbaijan's efforts to restore its territorial integrity, stressing that Baku is on the side of Islamabad in the Pakistani-Indian conflict in Kashmir.

The general's message was interesting: “Your Excellency, Turkey is one of our common partners with Azerbaijan. As you say “one nation, two states”, Turkey is very close to our hearts. Our closest relationship in the world is with Turkey. Close ties between the three countries open up great opportunities for our cooperation."

This message is very interesting in the context of the processes in Afghanistan, which have passed into the phase of a change of power in the country, or rather the establishment of the autocracy of the Taliban movement. In fact, Pakistan and Turkey are closely interacting on various world platforms, among which Afghanistan occupies an important place, which is in a state of transformation from a 40-year military life (first under Soviet and then American occupation) into a peaceful one.  On May 1, the United States, led by the NATO coalition, began the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, which will end on September 11, a 20-year date that became the starting point of the fight against international terrorism and America's large-scale military-political assertion from North Africa to the borders of post-Soviet Central Asia.

The departure of the Americans was not a defeat. During this time, working relations were formed with the radical Islamist Taliban movement, which agreed to interact with the world community on the terms of the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan. The United States actually agreed to the establishment of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. At the conclusion of an agreement with the Taliban in Qatar on February 29, 2020 on the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban movement was designated as the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan."

The development of the situation after the start of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan demonstrates the rapid transition to the rule of the Taliban of the regions that the Americans are leaving. Which speaks of their strength and influence in Afghan society. Since the beginning of the withdrawal of NATO troops - from May 1 to June 15, the Taliban captured 32 districts in 34 provinces of Afghanistan. According to the UN, the Taliban control up to 70% of the country's territory. The dynamics of the expansion of the territories coming under the Taliban rule suggests that by the fall, Afghanistan will actually become an Islamic emirate. The main achievement of this process will be the end of the war, the establishment of autocracy throughout the country and the creation of a system of state administration.

In fact, everyone - the United States, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Russia, the EU and others, is interested in establishing power, even radical at first, but extended to the whole country, and with which it will be possible to deal with for the implementation of projects representing mutual interest.

Afghanistan is known for its raw materials, the overwhelming part is undeveloped - deposits of iron ore, gold, copper, tungsten coal, sulfur, salt, gypsum, oil and gas, tin, lapis lazuli, chromite, lead Development of deposits will require colossal investments, infrastructure, discovery work places. In a word, Afghanistan, with the addition of 31 million people, is turning into a huge production site. The implementation of such projects will transform the country from a military closed country into an open one - integrated into the world economy and civilization. These transformations will change the thinking and way of life of Afghans and the leading military and ideological force - the Taliban.

The Taliban is hierarchically divided into three groups: the leadership of the movement in emigration, where a stratum of people who received education in Western universities has formed, and therefore it is inevitable that this group will take control of the economy, foreign policy, and so on. The second group is field commanders. They are trained to fight and in the new state, they will become the leading link in the army and police. Finally, the third group consists of ordinary militants. They will also form the backbone of the new army and police, some of them will go into peaceful life. It is the first group that will exert a tremendous influence on the course of the country's development in the transition from radical to moderate ideology.

In this process, an important role in maintaining internal balance is assigned to secular Islamic states such as Pakistan and Turkey, which have established themselves as friends of the Afghan people and defenders of Islam. Both countries have close ties with Afghan ethnic groups and, of course, with the Taliban movement. After the Americans leave, these two allied countries will provide security during the formation of the new Afghan state. It is in this context that General Bajwa's appeal to President Aliyev should be viewed. In fact, this is an offer to Azerbaijan to take part in the internal Afghan politics in the Pakistan-Turkey link. The Azerbaijani limited military contingent is serving as part of the Turkish troops in Afghanistan and we can talk about expanding the presence. Recently, the Azerbaijani-Pakistani military cooperation has expanded in the form of joint exercises and trainings. We should also expect the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia to join the process, which have already negotiated a number of projects in Afghanistan.

An example: on July 2, 2020, a video conferencing meeting of the leaders of Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and Ilham Aliyev, was held. At the meeting initiated by Ashraf Ghani, the participants discussed cooperation in the transport sector, as well as ways of harmonization in other sectors of the economy, including the creation of a new multimodal corridor along the route Afghanistan - Turkmenistan - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey (Lapis Lazuli).

Hope for the peaceful transformation of Afghanistan is given by the common desire of the powers to establish peace in that country. The contradictions between India and China, India and Pakistan, Russia and the United States are fading into the background. The day before, consultations were held between the US-Russia, Afghanistan-Pakistan-Turkey, Afghanistan-Iran-Turkey. Four directions were discussed: the peace process, security issues, the fight against terrorism and organized crime, illegal migration.

The Taliban are not opposed to Russia's participation in the formation of a new Afghanistan and there is a positive working relationship between the parties. It is no coincidence that when US President Joe Biden asked to support the peace process in Afghanistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin confidently stated that Russia would ensure security in the Hindu Kush, a mountain range that occupies a strategic position in this country. Turkey is no less interested in this, with which Moscow is developing working relations in Libya, Iraq, Syria, and the South Caucasus.

Nevertheless, Turkey, as a strong secular, pro-Western and at the same time Muslim country, will play an important role as a bridge in this system of multi-vector relations in the future construction of Afghanistan.

“Turkey is a great Muslim country; Afghanistan has historical ties with it. We hope to have a close and good relationship with her after a new Islamic government is established in our country in the future.” This statement was made by the Taliban on June 11, after Turkey, at the request of the United States, agreed to take control of the Kabul airport. The Taliban regarded this step as a violation of the agreements on the withdrawal of NATO troops and demanded that the Turkish military contingent of 500 people also leave Afghanistan. However, after that there was a lull. The logic of the development of events suggests that the Turks and the Taliban have reached an agreement.

Mehman Aliyev