Ramiz Mehdiyev - Confession of defeat or revenge?

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What does Ramiz Mehdiyev want, why does he write, what messages does he try to give?

First of all, Ramiz Mehdiyev, who headed the Presidential Administration for 25 years, is trying to understand the reasons for the attacks on him. He believes that he has fulfilled his duties responsibly and successfully. He did not overstep the line drawn for him. He contributed to the strengthening of the current government and helped Heydar Aliyev and Ilham Aliyev as the most reliable ally.

The confusion, anxiety, and defeat caused by the unexpected attitude he now faces are evident in his articles. Mehdiyev understands that he is purposefully drawn into the "war". He knows where and why systematic attacks against him are organized. He is aware that the administrative detention of his son-in-law is the last warning message to him. Instead of doing his actual work at the academy, writing about politics is an attempt of self-defense to get out of this uncertainty.

R.Mehdiyev tries to protect himself from a tougher attitude by saying that he does not intend to give up his deeds and loyalty until the end of his life. He knows that the current system could cause more terrible consequences for him and his family. He is convinced that the political will behind the attacks against him is now capable of many things in the country. There is no internal or external force to protect R. Mehdiyev and his relatives from these dangers.

At the same time, Mehdiyev is trying to show the real picture by showing his fate to the current government team and society. He shows that no one is safe in the current system and is not insured against humiliating consequences, regardless of their past services or status.

Can R. Mehdiyev be given political support from outside and inside?

Although he has repeatedly stated that he sees the country's political and military security in close relations with Russia, not the West, this is not his choice. Close political relations with Russia had not started with R.Mehdiyev, it has been the political course of H.Aliyev and then I.Aliyev since 1993.

The political rapprochement, which began 27 years ago by being involved in the CIS, has intensified in recent years. Especially after the 2016 constitutional amendment, although R. Mehdiyev's position in the government weakened, relations with Russia developed in all areas. Everyone knows that those who have been organizing the JARA International Festival in Baku every summer for 5 years, opening branches of Russia's largest universities in Azerbaijan, buying large quantities of weapons from Russia, and promoting Russian-language education in secondary schools are not close to R. Mehdiyev.

It is not convincing that he is receiving political support from Russia. Russia can change its attitude to individuals at any time in accordance with its interests. Many officials in the Azerbaijani government who have received Russia's highest orders and medals have been easily dismissed from their posts, and no concern has been voiced by Russia. The relations between Moscow and the Azerbaijani government will not change due to the attitude towards R. Mehdiyev.

It is no secret that he had resisted the entry of Western political values into the country. He has no positive relations with political circles and democratic institutions of the West, and it is unrealistic that he is receiving support from them.

At the same time, the ruling party, of which political presence or absence in society is unknown, despite having more than 700,000 members, and serious opposition organizations will not have political support for R. Mehdiyev.

Is the system established by Ramiz Mehdiyev collapsing?

The ideologue and founder of the current system of government in Azerbaijan are Heydar Aliyev. R.Mehdiyev also held a high position in this system as one of his main cadres and "masterpiece". He performed every task H.Aliyev and I.Aliyev gave to him.

In his last article, the academician said, "We have tried to make the most successful choice of the personnel at our disposal," pointing out that he had no role in the establishment of the personnel bank of the government. It is unclear by whom, where, and how the personnel bank of this system has been formed. He does not share the responsibility for the failure of the personnel, stating that they had the opportunity to choose the personnel among those presented to them.

The influence of the 82-year-old academician, who has been leading the formation of the existing system of socio-political relations in the country for 25 years, has been completely reduced to a minimum since 2018. It was obvious that he was reconciled to this situation and could not resist. It is as if some interesting circles managed to drag him into this discussion.

If Mehdiyev had taken the path of fighting for a position within the government, he would have secretly leaked the important facts to the public. Mehdiyev is one of the next victims of the "new system" of government. The public debate created around him opens up new opportunities for the government in intra-society relations.

Do Ramiz Mehdiyev's articles cause concern in the government?

There is a hidden crisis in many parts of the country. The economic, political, humanitarian, and legal environment is shrinking. The electoral institution has been completely destroyed. Discrimination, stratification, poverty, and administrative violence are on the rise in society. There is more injustice in all court instances than the restoration of justice. People from the lower and middle classes are tired of the current situation. Tensions have risen in state-citizen relations. The administrative and campaign resources of the government cannot change the direction of socio-political processes. Also, the political revival in the post-Soviet space and the military-political tensions around Karabakh have a psychological impact on the government and society.

In the condition of tensions caused by the pandemic and declining oil revenues, although the government's concerns are growing, it can divert attention from key issues. The analysis shows that Ramiz Mehdiyev's activities do not and cannot pose any serious risk to the government.

Nasimi Mammadli