Russian shadow in the Azerbaijani-Polish relations

Several documents were signed (on cooperation in the field of phytosanitary, in the field of agriculture and on the exchange of secret information), which is far from epochal. In 2017, during the official visit of President Aliyev to Poland, a roadmap of strategic partnership and economic cooperation between Poland and Azerbaijan was signed. However, with such a high bid, the intensity of high-level bilateral relations did not reach the dynamics that was under President Lech Kaczynski (2005-2010). Although it was planned that the dialogue will be active and constructive.

Judging by the bilateral trade, relations between the countries were smooth and could not gain the height set by the presidents, which was designated during Aliyev"s visit to Poland in 2017. Then the presidents considered the turnover of $ 100 million unsatisfactory, but according to the results of 2018, this figure increased by only 4 million, while Azerbaijani exports of hazelnuts, tomatoes and propylene decreased by 9.3%, showing a result of $ 7.9 million Polish supplies of chocolate, baby food and combines grew by 39.1%, reaching $ 96.1 million.

It is noteworthy that the Azerbaijani side very sparingly covers the visit of the President of Poland - there are no announcements, there is no operational information about the negotiations, the statements of the parties made to the press. More attention was paid to the discovery of a bas-relief in honor of Polish architects of the 19th and 20th centuries, who built in Baku the famous architectural monuments in the era of the first oil boom.

The Polish side was much more open in their plans for the visit of President Duda to Azerbaijan. The website of the Polish president said, "Polish President Andrzej Duda is leaving for an official visit to Azerbaijan on Thursday, where he will meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev to discuss cooperation in the field of transport, infrastructure, trade and energy."

Krzysztof Scherski, the Chief Assistant to President Duda, said that the main directions of bilateral cooperation is to promote the South-West transport corridor. This corridor is part of a wider EU interaction context and is a new transcontinental railway project of Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Poland, aimed at transporting railway cargo from the EU through Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Iran to India.

The Poles also announced the signing of business contracts prepared by the Polish Investment and Trade Agency (PAIH), as well as Polish and Azerbaijani companies. The caution of the actions of Azerbaijani diplomacy in the Polish direction may be dictated by the Russian factor and, in particular, by the poor relations between Warsaw and Moscow.

In April of this year, TASS stated, "relations between Russia and Poland in recent years leave much to be desired. Most contacts between states have been frozen. The Polish authorities have been criticizing Russia for the past five years (they are expressing exclusively critical comments about Russia)."

Under the current state of Russian-Polish relations, one can hardly expect the return of Azerbaijan and Poland to the era of Kaczynski, when there was a real intensive dialogue between the parties (five visits by Aliyev to Poland and three visits by Kaychnsky to Azerbaijan). Especially when Poland builds a strategy to strengthen the NATO front line on its territory, coming close to building the American base, and Azerbaijan distances itself from the European partnership, which showed the postponement of the signing of a strategic agreement with the EU for an indefinite time.

With such a multi-polar foreign policy view of the parties and the perception of threats, it is unlikely that we can witness the intensification of Polish-Azerbaijani cooperation in tactical terms.