Ukrainian puzzle

Moscow put forward  four demands that became the basis for a military operation to force Ukraine to accept the conditions:

- Demilitarization of Ukraine.

- Recognition by Ukraine of the Crimea, as part of the Russian Federation, and the independent status of the DPR and LPR.

- Constitutional renunciation of claims to join "any bloc".

- "Denazification".

Some clarity can be brought into the true causes and motives for the start of the war if one pays attention to the current situation in the region, the interests, contradictions, threats and actions of the parties to the conflict and interested third forces.

1.Ukraine. This country, after the collapse of the USSR, has come a long way to restore its national identity after centuries of Russification. This process was especially accelerated by the field of the Maidan revolution, and was largely spurred on by Russia's aggression against Ukraine, propaganda to humiliate the national dignity of Ukrainians and the Kremlin's open interference in its internal affairs.

Ukraine has chosen the European vector of development. However, on this path, it faced opposition: a high level of corruption, the strong influence of the oligarchy, and the slippage of reforms. All attempts by the US and the EU to speed up the process of reforming the country have failed. The landing of Georgian reformers led by Saakashvili in Ukraine, as well as the 40 billion IMF package for reforms, did not help. President Zelensky's ratings have been greatly shaken, and the position of the oligarchs who oppose reforms has noticeably strengthened. Zelensky’s rating in November 2021 fell to a record low of 19.3%, and the Servant of the People party affiliated with him could have received 16.6% if parliamentary elections were held at that time. Inflation is 10%, more than 23% of the population is below the poverty line.

The situation became even more critical, since, according to the memorandum with the IMF, Ukraine should switch to market tariff formation, which should have spurred a two- or three-fold increase in prices. Such a course of events could lead to significant unrest in Ukraine and cause a new Maidan. And this is the resignation of the government, the dissolution of parliament. The next and no less likely early parliamentary and presidential elections are won by oligarchs with an uncertain vector.

Against this background, fluctuations in the choice of the population between the European and post-Soviet paths of further development tend to favor Moscow.

Thus, it can be stated that Ukraine was drifting towards an internal political crisis, and the collapse was becoming inevitable. The American plan to bring Ukraine into the European space failed. There was a threat of Russian expansion into other post-Soviet regions.

2. Russia. All attempts by Vladimir Putin to bring Russia out of the state of uncertainty and semi-anarchy that began in the first decade of Russia's independence have been unsuccessful. Russia under Putin, despite the strengthening of the centralized system of government and the establishment of some control over the oligarchs, has not been able to enter the path of sustainable development. It was shaken by the economic crises of 1998, 2008, 2013 - 2022. Between the crises, the country received a certain respite, thanks to a significant increase in energy prices, which made it possible to somewhat intensify economic activity and improve the well-being of the population. However, it should be noted that after the start of the crisis of 2013, which continues to this day, there were no respite and it was not possible to overcome the crisis, although it was temporarily not possible. The average annual GDP growth was 0.9%. In the past three years, the situation has worsened, leading to a change in government. However, this did not improve the situation. The situation continued to worsen.

Due to the onset of the pandemic and high market turbulence, as well as falling oil and gas revenues, the Central Bank has refused to purchase gold since April 2020. The Russian authorities were forced to allow gold miners to export the precious metal in unlimited quantities. The strategy of the authorities was to use the proceeds from the sale of gold abroad to cover the shortfall in oil and gas revenues. To a certain extent, this has worked out - the state earns from 1.5 to $ 2 billion per month on the export of gold. But Russia pays a high price for this: from April to September, banks and miners exported almost all of the mined gold abroad, the volume of which is equal to 10% of the country's gold reserves.

As specified, in 2019 Russia exported 123 tons of gold in raw form and in bullion in the amount of $5.76 billion. In physical terms, the export of gold in 2020 more than doubled to 320 tons. According to preliminary estimates, in 2021 it exported 302.2 tons of gold worth $17.4 billion. In January 2022, an unprecedented event occurred – 200 tons of gold were exported.

Please note that in 2016, 22.4 tons of gold were exported, in 2017 - 56.6 tons, in 2018 the Central Bank purchased 274 tons of gold while exporting 17 tons. In the quarter, gold brought in an average of $6.25 billion, which was a third more than the income from gas exports - $4.5 billion. That is, gold has become more important than gas for the trade balance and the treasury.

Dissatisfaction with the authorities was brewing in the country. Social networks have become the main platform for the growth of social and political discontent and self-organization of citizens. In response, pressure on society increased, the introduced status of a foreign agent covered the media, NGOs, arrests of activists began - the Navalny case. Putin's electoral rating in November 2021 fell to 32%. This is the lowest result since 2014, according to the Levada Center poll.

The net outflow of capital from Russia in 2021 increased by 42.8% compared to the previous year and amounted to $72 billion. This follows from the balance of payments estimate published by the Central Bank.

Russia's technological backwardness has become more and more noticeable, as can be seen from the space programs and the arms market, where the US lead is growing.

Russia was on the verge of another crisis, the devaluation of the ruble, which, coupled with the growing social discontent of the population, created an explosive revolutionary situation with a possible change of power, distancing the regions from the center.

For the internal consolidation of society and the justification of political restrictions, it remained only to use the factor of an external enemy, an outgoing threat to Russia, and in connection with this, a preemptive strike, as was the case in 1999-2000 (the war in Chechnya), 2008 (Aggression against Georgia) , in 2014 (limited aggression against Ukraine), 2015 (Russia's entry into the war in Syria), 2015 confrontation with Turkey (the incident with the downed aircraft by the Turkish Air Force).

3. US-EU. All attempts to bring Ukraine to the pro-Western vector of development were unsuccessful. A rollback to the Soviet past threatened. This created risks for the policy of expanding the zone of influence, which was contrary to the national interests of the US-EU.

Destabilization in Russia, which has a large nuclear potential, increased the threat to control over the nuclear arsenal and its use by individuals or groups, which made a world nuclear war more likely.

The end of the war. Result

1.Ukraine. The country will soon defend its independence. It will receive unprecedented, urgent political and financial assistance outside the standard procedures of the US, EU, international financial organizations. It has already begun. The country is about to rapidly modernize all industries and areas in accordance with Western standards. Serious success will be achieved in the fight against corruption, reforms, promotion of democracy, free economy. The creative potential of the Ukrainian people will be revealed, the rapid growth of the welfare of the population will begin. The process of European integration, which has already been given political carte blanche by Brussels, will accelerate.

2. Russia. The country will begin to implement the New Economic Policy (NEP) with the attraction of foreign investment. An accelerated process of removing Western sanctions and providing financial assistance for reforms will begin. The modernization of the economy with the participation of Western capital will take on a large-scale character. We should not expect quick and broad political reforms and democratization. But institutional reforms, personnel rejuvenation of the management system, aimed at cooperation with Europe, will be inevitable. The process of reformatting the economy from the post-Soviet flawed oligarchic system towards a healthy economy on the principle of the advanced economies of the countries of the world will begin. Against this background, the process of democratization and information freedom of society will be somewhat lagging behind. The forceful influence of Russia on the post-Soviet countries will weaken, and vice versa, the factor of building mutually beneficial cooperation in the economic and other spheres, including security, will increase.

3.US-EU. The Western Hemisphere will get Ukraine into its bosom. An accelerated process of European integration will begin on the eastern flank of the EU. Cooperation with the post-Soviet space will be strengthened. Western investments in the Russian economy will take on a large-scale character, which will also affect the future vector of the country's development towards greater openness and predictability. Cooperation between the West and Russia will be strengthened in various fields, including security. The influence of the West in the Eurasian space will noticeably increase.

Mehman Aliyev