Can Azerbaijan and Armenia Sign a Peace Agreement Soon?

As tensions simmer between Azerbaijan and Armenia, there are cautious hopes for a lasting peace agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently underscored the importance of such an agreement during a trilateral meeting with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Armenian counterparts. Blinken described the potential deal as "long-term, worthy, and opening up extraordinary opportunities" for both countries, the region, and their relations with the United States.

“Throughout this process, the United States has provided assistance and support, along with the European Union and many colleagues in Europe. Today's meeting is an opportunity to take stock of the progress achieved," Blinken remarked. He expressed optimism, stating, "I believe that both countries are very close to reaching a final agreement, which the United States will strongly support."

Political commentator Rauf Mirgadirov shared insights into the negotiation dynamics on the program "Difficult Question." He noted that while Azerbaijan claims it does not need intermediaries, and Armenia has rejected Russian mediation, the reality is more nuanced. Meetings have shifted from planned bilateral talks to being mediated by Western powers as part of broader international engagements. Despite appearances, these meetings are coordinated through diplomatic channels.

The West's involvement remains robust, albeit with a change in how the meetings are presented. Mirgadirov highlighted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed optimism for a swift peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan during a press conference in Washington after the NATO summit. Erdogan emphasized Turkey's role in fostering reconciliation, noting positive steps observed in discussions with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Mirgadirov pointed to a significant obstacle: the Armenian constitution's territorial claims against Azerbaijan and the declaration of independence based on the annexation of part of Azerbaijan's territory. This constitutional provision stems from the December 1989 joint resolution of the Armenian SSR and the National Council of Nagorno-Karabakh. He suggests that a peace agreement could be expedited if Armenia amends these documents.

The potential for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia hinges on complex diplomatic negotiations and significant constitutional changes. The involvement of international actors, particularly the United States and Turkey, adds layers of support and pressure for a resolution. As both nations edge closer to a possible agreement, the coming months will be critical in determining whether long-standing hostilities can finally give way to enduring peace.