Could a war between Azerbaijan and Armenia start again?

Baku/18.11.21/Turan: Despite the message about the stabilization of the situation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border with the mediation of the Russian Federation since the evening of November 16, units of the Armenian Armed Forces periodically fired on the villages of Mundjuglu, Agbulag, Gosh, Kokhanebi and Asrik Jirdakhan of the Tovuz region.  It seems that Armenia does not want to calm down. How likely is the threat that another war will break out between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Political observer Rauf Mirkadyrov tried to answer these and other questions in the program "Difficult Question".

According to him, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has moved from Karabakh to the border regions. But even before the 44-day war there were clashes in the border areas.

Mirkadyrov is convinced that behind every serious violation of the ceasefire regime are the tactical interests of the parties to the conflict and Moscow. All three parties are trying to realize their goals, which are absolutely opposite.

According to the expert, Azerbaijan wants to achieve at least some primary results in the diplomatic plane - first of all, the demarcation and delimitation of borders, unblocking communications, primarily with Nakhchivan, as well as signing a peace agreement, which implies recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

However, Mirkadyrov stresses, demarcation and delimitation of borders is not yet recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

“Today it became known that Pashinyan stated that the proposal of the Russian Defense Ministry regarding the preparatory stage of demarcation and delimitation is acceptable for Armenia. At the same time, we hear that Pashinyan is not yet ready to sign a peace agreement, since this means recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. But this does not suit Azerbaijan,” he said.

According to the observer, Armenia is also interested in shootings. “Specifically, the Pashinyan government may be interested in exacerbation. The fact is that the results of the war are perceived by the Armenian community as a grave defeat. Therefore, Pashinyan is trying to at least partially save the Armenian people from the complex of the defeated - they say, we are protecting the borders, we can put Azerbaijan in its place, etc. and so on,” he did not rule out adding that, unfortunately, there is also a third party in this conflict - Russia.

“Her interest lies in expanding its sphere of influence. And the confrontation on the border may necessitate the involvement of a peacekeeping mission. And so far, there is no alternative to Russia to fulfill this mission. So, these shootings are in the interests of Russia,” Mirkadyrov believes.--0--