Why are there pre-election arrests? - Zardusht Alizadeh

Baku/18.12.23/Turan: In a controversial move, the Narimanov District Court of Azerbaijan issued a decision on December 15 to arrest Tofik Yagublu, a member of the National Council and the Musavat party, for a period of four months. Yagublu faces charges under articles 178.3.2 (fraud causing major damage) and 320 (forgery, illegal manufacture or sale of official documents, state awards, seals, stamps, letterheads or the use of forged documents). This arrest is part of a broader trend that has seen the detention of numerous journalists, political figures, and activists in the country over the past month.

The timing of these arrests, especially in the lead-up to elections, has raised eyebrows and prompted political commentator Zardusht Alizadeh to explore potential motivations in  program "Difficult Question." Despite President Ilham Aliyev's seemingly unchallenged leadership, Alizadeh suggests that a continuous struggle for influence and material resources persists within the country.

Alizadeh points out a pattern observed in the South Caucasus region: preceding reports by the EU or PACE, mass arrests occur in Azerbaijan, while political prisoners are released in Armenia. The consequence is a critical portrayal of Azerbaijan and a more favorable image of Armenia in international reports. Drawing parallels to this historical context, Alizadeh concludes that the recent wave of arrests aims to discredit Azerbaijan on the global stage.

The seasoned analyst argues that the impact these detained journalists and activists can have on the upcoming elections is minimal. Thus, a conventional political motivation for these arrests is hard to discern. Instead, Alizadeh contends that the primary goal is to undermine Azerbaijan's reputation and signal internal power dynamics.

He posits that influential forces within Azerbaijan's power structure seek to assert themselves and demonstrate their ability to influence national processes. By detaining individuals without significant political weight, these forces aim to convey to President Aliyev that his authority is not absolute. Alizadeh draws parallels with the 2013 presidential elections when Russia actively intervened in Azerbaijan's internal politics to showcase its influence before publicly supporting Aliyev.

In essence, Alizadeh suggests that the recent arrests are a strategic move by factions within Azerbaijan's power echelons to wield influence, both domestically and internationally, in the run-up to the elections. The arrests, he argues, serve as a tool to assert their relevance and potentially shape the narrative surrounding Azerbaijan on the global stage.