The Berlin meeting, the President's messages, the steps of the West

The recent meetings in Berlin between the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Ceyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, underlined the persistent diplomatic dance surrounding the South Caucasus region. Despite assurances from Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that his country harbors no plans for aggression against Armenia, skepticism looms large over the prospects for genuine peace.

President Aliyev's assertion comes amidst rising tensions fueled by speculative reports in Azerbaijani media, suggesting Western machinations to embroil Armenia in conflict with Azerbaijan once again. These claims find resonance in the commentary of Azer Gasimli, head of the Institute of Political Management,, who in the program "A difficult Question" claims  that the Azerbaijani leadership's participation in the Berlin talks merely serves as a stalling tactic, orchestrated under the patronage of Russia.

Gasimli contends that Russia's strategic interests in the region, particularly its desire to maintain control over the Zangezur corridor, dictate a narrative of perpetual tension. He posits that Russia's pressure on Azerbaijan, evident in its push for control over the corridor through the FSB Border Service, stands as a significant barrier to a lasting peace agreement.

In Gasimli's analysis, the Azerbaijani government's reluctance to engage meaningfully in peace negotiations stems from its alignment with Russian interests. He suggests that Azerbaijan has unwittingly become a pawn in Russia's broader geopolitical ambitions, positioning itself as an outpost of Russian influence in the South Caucasus.

Furthermore, Gasimli's commentary casts doubt on the efficacy of Western diplomatic efforts, characterizing them as mere theatrics aimed at buying time rather than fostering genuine progress towards peace. He questions the sincerity of Azerbaijan's engagement with Western platforms, such as the Granada talks and the Brussels format, suggesting that these engagements serve primarily as ceremonial gestures devoid of substantive commitment.

Gasimli's analysis challenges the prevailing narrative propagated by pro-government media in Azerbaijan, which often vilifies the West as the provocateur of regional instability. Instead, he posits that Russia, driven by its imperial ambitions, actively stokes tensions to assert its dominance over the region.

Ultimately, Gasimli's assessment underscores the precarious nature of diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus, where entrenched geopolitical interests overshadow genuine aspirations for peace. Despite the veneer of dialogue and negotiation, the underlying dynamics of power politics continue to dictate the scenario of the region, leaving little room for optimism regarding the prospects for a meaningful peace agreement.