The referendum will not take place this year. Postponed for next year?

Baku/03.10.23/Turan:  In the ever-evolving political landscape of Azerbaijan, it has become increasingly evident that the long-discussed referendum will not take place this year. According to Azerbaijani legislation, a referendum is officially announced 60 days prior to the voting date. With October already behind us, it is safe to conclude that a referendum will not occur in 2023. But what does this delay mean for the political calendar, especially given the upcoming municipal and parliamentary elections?

Municipal elections are scheduled for December next year, and parliamentary elections are set to follow. The intricacies of Azerbaijani law allow for the term of office for the National Assembly (Milli Majlis) to be less than the standard five years if early elections are called. In such cases, regular elections for the Milli Majlis are mandated to take place on the first Sunday of November during the fifth year of the current parliamentary term. This provision implies that parliamentary elections should be held on November 2, 2025, based on the February 2020 early elections.

Bashir Suleymanli, head of the Institute of Civil Rights, gives a detailed look at this issue in the program "Difficult Question". He clarifies that the provision concerning the term of office refers specifically to individual deputies. When a by-election is conducted to replace a deputy who has lost their mandate for any reason, it naturally shortens that deputy's term. However, this does not necessarily impact the overall parliamentary election schedule mandated by the Constitution.

Suleymanli also raises a crucial point: the possibility of holding a referendum can trigger mandatory parliamentary elections. This scenario arises from the likelihood that constitutional amendments will be proposed during the referendum, necessitating early parliamentary elections. If this unfolds, parliamentary elections would indeed take place next year, and it's possible that within a span of a year, Azerbaijan could see a series of events, including a referendum, parliamentary elections, and municipal elections.

Importantly, Suleymanli highlights that there have been no confirmed reports from reliable sources regarding the potential scheduling of parliamentary elections in November next year. This uncertainty leaves room for various possibilities and underscores the complex dynamics at play in Azerbaijan's political landscape.

As the country navigates these intricacies and evolving circumstances, the timing and sequence of these political events will undoubtedly shape the future of Azerbaijani politics, and we will continue to monitor these developments closely.