The Zangezur Corridor was Excluded From the Peace Agreement. Under Whose Control Is It Being Transferred?

In a notable shift in the ongoing negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Zangezur Corridor has been excluded from the peace agreement, raising questions about future control over this critical transport route. On August 7, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ani Badalyan confirmed Baku's announcement that the clause concerning regional communications was mutually removed from the draft peace agreement. Despite this exclusion, Badalyan emphasized that the opening of new routes remains a key component of Armenia’s strategy for ensuring peace and fostering economic development in the region.

Elchin Amirbekov, the Azerbaijani President's special envoy, also acknowledged the decision to remove the transport communications clause from the peace agreement, including the route linking western Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. He noted that this issue would be addressed at a later stage, indicating the complexities involved in regional diplomacy.

Armenian political analyst Sergey Melkonyan suggested during a conference in Yerevan that recent discussions between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washington, D.C., considered the possibility of transferring control over future communications to an international private security company. This arrangement, which would include border and customs oversight, could affect both Armenian and Azerbaijani territories, including Nakhchivan. Melkonyan highlighted that Tehran views this development as a threat to its regional interests, reflecting the broader geopolitical stakes involved.

The Iranian perspective was made clear during a meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, where Khamenei stated that the Zangezur Corridor does not align with Armenia’s interests. This sentiment might have been a topic of discussion for Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoygu, who visited Baku and Tehran this week. Shoygu's post-meeting remarks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, asserting that "the West should not be left in the South Caucasus," suggest that Russia remains wary of Western influence in the region.

Political analyst Oktay Gasymov shared insights on the program “Complex Questions” regarding the Zangezur Corridor’s prospects. He noted that Armenia has significantly hardened its stance over the past three years, hindering the corridor's realization. Several factors contributed to this shift, including Russia's initial ability to pressure Armenia to open the corridor before February 2022. However, Russia’s strategic delay, aimed at maintaining regional influence, ultimately diminished its leverage.

Western interests have also played a role in the corridor's stagnation. In November 2023, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien testified before Congress, asserting that the Zangezur Corridor should open solely under Armenian terms—a position Azerbaijan finds unacceptable. In response to these challenges, Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on March 11, 2022, outlining plans for new transport and electrical connections linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via the Aras River and Iran’s northwest region. This move aimed to reduce external pressure on Azerbaijan regarding the corridor issue.

Gasymov believes that the opening of the Zangezur Corridor will not be resolved soon, impacting the peace process. Azerbaijan insists that a fundamental condition for a peace agreement with Armenia is the amendment of the Armenian constitution. Armenia, however, maintains that a new constitution will only be adopted after 2026, as Prime Minister Pashinyan has tasked the drafting of a new constitution by the end of that year.

“Thus, expecting any immediate breakthroughs in this direction is unrealistic. At most, a framework agreement might be signed, but only if the United States applies sufficient pressure on Armenia,” Gasymov explained.

As the Zangezur Corridor remains a contentious issue, its resolution appears crucial to the broader regional peace and development objectives. The geopolitical intricacies involved suggest that any progress will require careful negotiation and potentially significant international involvement.