U.S. Presidential Election: Which Candidate is Preferable for Azerbaijan?

Today, the U.S. is holding its presidential election. The contenders for the presidency include current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. On July 21, the Democratic Party's candidate for the 2024 election, current President Joe Biden, announced his withdrawal from the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. Donald Trump, on the other hand, represents the Republicans in this election.

Which candidate’s victory would better serve Azerbaijan’s interests? Political commentator Nasimi Mammadli addresses this question and others on the show "Difficult Question."

According to Mammadli, despite existing connections between Donald Trump and the Azerbaijani elite, his victory would not align with Azerbaijan's national interests. If Trump comes to power, he is likely to lift all restrictions related to the oil sector. This would lead to a drop in global oil prices, which is not in Azerbaijan’s favor, as its economy is largely based on energy extraction. Given the decline in Azerbaijan's oil production volumes, the country’s economy might not withstand such pressure.

Furthermore, Trump’s campaign commitment to strengthening the U.S. dollar could also have negative implications for Azerbaijan’s economy.

In the event of Kamala Harris's victory, not much would change for Azerbaijan. Democratic appeals regarding human rights would not significantly impact Azerbaijan, as these are primarily rhetorical.

In the expert’s view, Trump’s chances of winning appear stronger. His support base includes the conservative segment of society, "rednecks" (rural white farmers) and industrialists, particularly from the oil sector. Unlike Harris, Trump skillfully addresses issues sensitive to these groups, such as concerns about immigrants and local waste management, among others.