What Does the Strategic Partnership Between Armenia and the U.S. and Russia and Iran Mean for the Region?

Political analyst Shahin Jafarli discusses this question in the program "Difficult  Question."

The expert believes that the Charter on Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the United States, signed on January 14 by Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, marks a significant shift in Armenia's foreign policy. He also noted that just a few days earlier, on January 9, the Armenian government approved a draft law initiating the process of the country's accession to the European Union, which will now be presented to parliament for consideration.

"All these steps indicate that Armenia has chosen a Western course," Jafarli emphasized, adding that the charter "does not include any provisions about a military alliance."

"The document does not provide any security guarantees for Armenia. While its significance should not be underestimated, it also should not be exaggerated. It should be evaluated realistically. The document focuses on elevating U.S.-Armenian cooperation to a higher level across all spheres," he said.

According to Jafarli, the most significant element in the document is the provision regarding U.S. support for developing the potential of Armenia's border forces. This indicates Washington's intention to fill the vacuum in the South Caucasus left by the weakening presence of Russia and Iran. It also reflects increased U.S. attention to the region, signaling the start of an active competition between the West and Russia for influence in the South Caucasus.

The political analyst is confident that this charter is not directed against Azerbaijan.

"The displacement of Russia from the region and its replacement by the West does not contradict Azerbaijan's interests; on the contrary, it aligns with them. This process lays the groundwork for establishing lasting peace in the region, promoting its economic development, and, ultimately, fostering democratization," Jafarli asserts.

As for the Comprehensive Partnership Agreement signed today in the Kremlin between Russia and Iran, Jafarli believes the document is a response to ongoing developments in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine.

"This agreement is the result of new geopolitical processes," he noted, adding that Iran's long-standing regional configuration has been disrupted. Russia’s position is also far from strong, despite recent advances on the frontlines. "Thus, they need each other," the expert concluded.