What Will US-Azerbaijan Relations Look Like Under Trump?

In the wake of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, questions about his administration’s foreign policy direction loom large, particularly regarding its approach to the South Caucasus. Speaking on the "Difficult Question"  program from Washington, Azerbaijani journalist Alex Raufoglu gave a subtle assessment of how the Trump presidency could affect relations between the United States and Azerbaijan.

On January 23, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initiated a dialogue with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, signaling early attention to the region. According to a US State Department statement, the two discussed bilateral ties, the situation in Syria, and crucially, the ongoing efforts to establish peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The use of the phrase “a stable and dignified peace” echoed the rhetoric of the Biden administration, where similar terminology had been employed by then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

However, Raufoglu observed that this language does not entirely align with Trump’s campaign promises of isolationism and pragmatism in foreign affairs. The journalist highlighted the apparent contradiction, suggesting that while the Trump administration may espouse a hands-off foreign policy in principle, the strategic importance of the South Caucasus is likely to remain a focus.

Shifting Priorities Under Rubio’s Leadership

In an unexpected move, Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, will make his first international visit not to Europe but to Latin America. The agenda centers on immigration, economic cooperation, and the Panama Canal's strategic importance. This pivot underscores the administration’s broader geopolitical recalibration and raises questions about how much attention will be afforded to the South Caucasus.

Despite this, Raufoglu pointed to key personnel decisions that indicate a continued interest in the region. Louis Bono, a seasoned diplomat and the State Department’s Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations, has been appointed Acting Head of the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. This development, according to Raufoglu, demonstrates that the South Caucasus remains on Washington’s radar, even amid Trump’s broader focus on domestic priorities.

Davos Speech Revives "America First" Doctrine

Concerns over Trump’s foreign policy were further amplified following his keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. In his first major international appearance since retaking office, Trump doubled down on his “America First” agenda. He demanded increased military spending from European allies, pledged to shield American industries through tariffs, and controversially suggested that falling oil prices could accelerate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The speech, which revived themes from Trump’s first term, has already strained relations with European leaders, who remain wary of his return. For Azerbaijan, these dynamics present both challenges and opportunities. While Washington’s pivot away from Europe could allow for greater focus on the South Caucasus, the administration’s unpredictability complicates strategic planning for Baku.

Limited Time for Bold Moves

According to Raufoglu, the Trump administration faces significant time constraints in advancing its foreign policy objectives. With Republicans holding a slim majority in Congress, Trump has an 18-month window to enact his agenda before the political landscape could shift with the next election. For Azerbaijan, this timeline underscores the urgency of securing US support for its regional priorities, including the resolution of the conflict with Armenia and the development of strategic partnerships.

As Trump’s administration unfolds, the future of US-Azerbaijan relations will depend on the interplay between Washington’s broader geopolitical ambitions and its capacity to maintain focus on the South Caucasus. While uncertainty prevails, one thing is clear: Azerbaijan’s place in Trump’s foreign policy calculus will be shaped as much by global dynamics as by Baku’s own strategic diplomacy.