Who is behind the terrorist attack in Crocus City, and what are its consequences for Russia? - a talk with a political scientist Arkady Dubnov in "Çətin sual"

In the aftermath of the tragic terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow, questions abound regarding the perpetrators, their motivations, and the potential repercussions for Russia. As authorities scramble to piece together the puzzle, Arkady Dubnov, a seasoned political scientist and expert on Central Asian affairs, offers insights into the complex web of factors at play in the program "Difficult Question".

Dubnov dismisses any notion of a Ukrainian connection to the attack, firmly attributing the atrocity to the Islamic State (IS), specifically its faction known as Vilayat Khorasan. He highlights the resurgence of IS and its evolving tactics, emphasizing that the group seeks to garner attention and portray itself as a champion of oppressed Muslims.

The purported motive of seeking revenge for Muslim persecution in Syria, according to Dubnov, serves as a facade to cloak IS's broader agenda. He contends that the attack aims to bolster IS's image and attract recruits under the guise of defending Islam—a cynical ploy to market terrorism as a noble cause.

Crucially, Dubnov refutes the notion of Russian security forces orchestrating the attack. He argues that the sophistication of the operation and its lack of strategic utility preclude such involvement. Instead, he suggests that Russian agencies were caught off guard, preoccupied with internal dissent related to the conflict in Ukraine.

The implications of the attack extend beyond domestic security concerns to Russia's relations with Central Asian states and its treatment of migrants. Despite calls for stricter visa controls in the aftermath of the attack, Dubnov asserts that such measures would jeopardize regional partnerships and economic arrangements, which Moscow is unwilling to sacrifice. Moreover, he argues that tightening visa regulations would do little to mitigate the terrorist threat, citing logistical challenges and the porous nature of borders.

In essence, Dubnov's analysis underscores the multifaceted nature of the Crocus City attack and its implications for Russia. It exposes the opportunistic nature of terrorist groups like IS, which exploit grievances to further their own agendas. Furthermore, it sheds light on the challenges facing Russian security forces in balancing internal stability with external threats.