Will Lukashenko's forecast come true?

Baku/07.07.22/Turan: During the suppression of protests against amendments to the Constitution of Uzbekistan in the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan, a large number of people died and were injured. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev had to listen to the protests of the Karakalpaks, who objected to depriving them of the opportunity to hold a referendum on secession from Uzbekistan and to cancel the amendments and additions to the Constitution of Uzbekistan.

The Ministry of Finance of Kazakhstan has published a draft Order "On approval of the Rules for the implementation of a pilot project to record the movement of certain types of goods when they are exported from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan." This document, in fact, prohibits the supply of goods to Russia and Belarus that fell under Western sanctions.

Russia suspended for a month the transportation of Kazakh oil through the  pipeline of the “Caspian Pipeline Consortium” (CPC) to Novorossiysk.

What is going on in Central Asia? Is the “prophecy” of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko made in December last year that “the turn of Central Asia has come” being realized?

Ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs Tofig Zulfugarov  commented on the events taking place in Central Asia in the “Difficult Question” program.

According to him, interesting processes are taking place in this region. “The first results of the Russian-Ukrainian war have already begun to appear - the influence and capabilities of Russia in neighboring countries, where its influence has traditionally been great, have begun to decline and it is possible that they will disappear completely. And this process concerns not only Central Asia, but also the South Caucasus,” the ex-minister noted.

To confirm his words, he cited as an example the curtailment of the Syrian project, as well as other military-political projects of Russia.

“We are witnessing how manpower and weapons are being transferred to the Ukrainian front from different parts of the world.

International sanctions and the pressure exerted on Russia are increasing, and there are already many post-Soviet countries among those who take part in this process,” Zulfugarov noted.

Returning to the topic of Central Asia, the diplomat noted that new players had already joined the struggle for influence in the region.

“They have been involved there for a long time, but now they want to become the dominant force.  The talk is about China and the West.

True, in most cases the interests of the West are limited to economic interests. But, nevertheless, it is there. Also, the emerging ideology of Turan and the ambitions of Turkey should not be discounted,” the diplomat said, noting that although from an economic and military point of view, China, which has now entered into an open struggle with Russia for dominance in the region, looks preferable from an ideological point of view. Turkey's chances are much more preferable. However.

The activities of the Taliban and their victory over the West are largely due to the support from China and Pakistan. And we can say that China in this region prevailed over the West. Now its ability to influence has increased and now it claims to show (demonstrate) its dominant role in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other countries.

Regarding the events in Nukus, Zulfugarov did not rule out that it was an attempt to push the Uzbeks against the Kazakhs, who are ethnically close to the Karakalpaks.

"That would create a problem for China and the West," he said.

Answering the question - is Russia, which is under the pressure of international sanctions, weakened militarily, capable of opening another front in Central Asia? - Zulfugarov noted that such a step would be devoid of logic and common sense, just like the war with Ukraine.

“Whom will this front be opened against? If the war in Ukraine is being waged against the West, who will it be directed against in Central Asia? Against China? Is it possible? Difficult question!

It is possible that someone wants the collapse of Russia. Then the Central Asian front is also possible,” the ex-minister believes. –0-